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U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices

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  • Ore Koren

    (Indiana University)

  • W. Kindred Winecoff

    (Indiana University)

Abstract

This note argues that the monetary policies of the U.S. Federal Reserve impact food prices globally and can – by extension – affect the incidence of food riots and broader social conflict. We additionally claim that these impacts are especially likely in the case of commodities with more price-inelastic demand, staple cereals in particular, but less likely in the case of food commodities with more price-elastic demand, such as meats and oil. Using mediation analysis, we find empirical support for the impact of changes to US dollar supply on food riots from 2000–2011. We also find that this relationship extends to broader measures of social conflict (including protests, riots, strikes, etc.). We conclude with a cautionary note about how to interpret these results.

Suggested Citation

  • Ore Koren & W. Kindred Winecoff, 2022. "U.S. Federal Reserve Policies can cause Political instability by raising bread prices," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 14(6), pages 1431-1434, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:14:y:2022:i:6:d:10.1007_s12571-022-01300-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-022-01300-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Craig A. Gallet, 2010. "Meat Meets Meta: A Quantitative Review of the Price Elasticity of Meat," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 92(1), pages 258-272.
    2. Clapp, Jennifer, 2017. "Food self-sufficiency: Making sense of it, and when it makes sense," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 88-96.
    3. Marc F. Bellemare, 2015. "Rising Food Prices, Food Price Volatility, and Social Unrest," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 97(1), pages 1-21.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hana Trollman & Sandeep Jagtap & Frank Trollman, 2023. "Crowdsourcing food security: introducing food choice derivatives for sustainability," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 15(4), pages 953-965, August.

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