Changing rice cropping patterns and their impact on food security in southern China

Southern China, which boasts high-yielding rice multi-crop systems, has long produced most of China’s rice. However, its ability to feed China has been weakened by changing rice cropping patterns in recent decades. In this study, we first examine production loss ascribed to rice multi-crop change in the south during 1998–2016 using agricultural statistics. Results show that the simultaneous removal of double-season rice (DSR) accounts for the majority of the reduction in rice output, and the region’s cropping shift from DSR to single-season rice (SSR) does not necessarily lead to production loss. Based on the calculation model of rice production, we then estimate rice loss caused by land-use changes across the south. Factor decomposition results show that the rice cropping share is the top rice loss factor, followed by the farmland area, whereas the farmland multiple cropping index (MCI) change makes little positive contribution. High variation in land-use changes and their effects on rice output are also found across the south. The most significant fall in rice production occurs in coastal southern China owing to the sharp decline in the rice cropping share and MCI. The middle reaches of the Yangtze River, in contrast, experience a cropping shift from DSR to SSR, but still gain expansion in rice area and rice output, where the rice cropping share and MCI present as positive factors. Finally, suggestions for enhancing food security through the reasonable utilization of paddy land resources in southern China are discussed.