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The impact of COVID-19 related ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions on food prices in Europe: findings from a preliminary analysis

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  • Sonia Akter

    (National University of Singapore)

Abstract

This study examines the impact of COVID-19 related ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions on food prices in 31 European countries. I combine the European Union’s Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP) with the Stay-at-Home Restriction Index (SHRI) from the Oxford COVID-19 Government Response Tracker (OxCGRT) dataset for January–May 2020. The results of a series of difference-in-difference regression models reveal that the severity of stay-at-home restrictions increased overall food prices by 1% in March 2020, compared to January and February 2020. The price level for food continued to rise in the high stay-at-home restriction countries relative to thier counterpart in April but stabilised in May. The food categories that witnessed the most significant surges in prices were meat, fish & seafood, and vegetables. The prices of bread & cereals, fruits, milk, cheese & eggs and oils & fats were not significantly affected. The correlations between food prices and stay-at-home restrictions were significant after controlling for cross-country variations in COVID-19 affectedness and other mitigation and adaptation measures, such as international travel controls, road closures and the size of the economic stimulus packages. This study presents the first empirical evidence of food price inflation as an unintended consequence of COVID-19 pandemic containment measures in one of the most severely hit continents of the world.

Suggested Citation

  • Sonia Akter, 2020. "The impact of COVID-19 related ‘stay-at-home’ restrictions on food prices in Europe: findings from a preliminary analysis," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 12(4), pages 719-725, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ssefpa:v:12:y:2020:i:4:d:10.1007_s12571-020-01082-3
    DOI: 10.1007/s12571-020-01082-3
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    Cited by:

    1. Ihle, Rico & Bar-Nahum, Ziv & Nivievskyi, Oleg & Rubin, Ofir D., 2022. "Russia’s invasion of Ukraine increased the synchronisation of global commodity prices," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 66(04), January.
    2. Kaspars Naglis-Liepa & Liga Paula & Lana Janmere & Dace Kaufmane & Liga Proskina, 2022. "Local Food Development Perspectives in Latvia: A Value-Oriented View," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-30, February.
    3. Kentaka Aruga, 2022. "Impact of the Number of Hours Spent at Home on the Volume of Municipal Waste Generated: Evidence from Tokyo during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(10), pages 1-10, May.
    4. Petrescu-Mag, Ruxandra Malina & Petrescu, Dacinia Crina & Todoran, Silviu Ciprian & Petrescu-Mag, Ioan Valentin, 2021. "Us and them. Is the COVID-19 pandemic a driver for xenophobia in land transactions in Romania?," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
    5. Li Wang & Xing-Lu Gao & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2023. "Testing For Intrinsic Multifractality In The Global Grain Spot Market Indices: A Multifractal Detrended Fluctuation Analysis," FRACTALS (fractals), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 31(07), pages 1-24.
    6. Daisy Recchia & Pascaline Rollet & Marlène Perignon & Nicolas Bricas & Simon Vonthron & Coline Perrin & Caroline Méjean, 2022. "Changes in food purchasing practices of French households during the first COVID-19 lockdown and associated individual and environmental factors," Post-Print hal-03638229, HAL.
    7. Amare, Mulubrhan & Abay, Kibrom A. & Tiberti, Luca & Chamberlin, Jordan, 2021. "COVID-19 and food security: Panel data evidence from Nigeria," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 101(C).
    8. Tarek Ben Hassen & Hamid El Bilali & Mohammad S. Allahyari & Darjan Karabašević & Adriana Radosavac & Sinisa Berjan & Željko Vaško & Pavle Radanov & Ibrahim Obhođaš, 2021. "Food Behavior Changes during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Statistical Analysis of Consumer Survey Data from Bosnia and Herzegovina," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(15), pages 1-11, August.
    9. Gao, Xing-Lu & Shao, Ying-Hui & Yang, Yan-Hong & Zhou, Wei-Xing, 2022. "Do the global grain spot markets exhibit multifractal nature?," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    10. Ziang Zhang & Chao Liu & Robin Nunkoo & Vivek A. Sunnassee & Xiaoyan Chen, 2022. "Rethinking Lockdown Policies in the Pre-Vaccine Era of COVID-19: A Configurational Perspective," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(12), pages 1-18, June.

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