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Scenario Forecasts of Expected Damage from Permafrost Degradation: Regional and Industry Issues

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  • B. N. Porfiriev

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

  • D. O. Eliseev

    (Institute of Economic Forecasting, Russian Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

— The article is a continuation of a previous study on a methodology for forecasting expected damage to fixed assets from permafrost thawing precipitated by climate change in the northern regions of Russia, in which the authors proposed an integrated methodology for economic assessment of thawing-related risks adjusted for industry- and region-specific features. The present article uses that methodology to substantiate an assessment of the expected damage from permafrost degradation to the industrial complexes of the nine discussed regions under three scenarios that differ in dynamics and intensity of climate change. Estimates of the total damage from permafrost thawing to the fixed assets of these regions over a 30-year period range across the scenarios from 3.6 trillion to 5.7 trillion rubles. In terms of comparing regions, the damage is the most significant in the Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrug—1.8–2.5 trillion rubles, amounting to about 50% of the total damage; in terms of industries the damage is the worst for the extractive industry—2.0–2.7 trillion rubles.

Suggested Citation

  • B. N. Porfiriev & D. O. Eliseev, 2023. "Scenario Forecasts of Expected Damage from Permafrost Degradation: Regional and Industry Issues," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(5), pages 651-659, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:5:d:10.1134_s1075700723050143
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723050143
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    1. Jan Hjort & Olli Karjalainen & Juha Aalto & Sebastian Westermann & Vladimir E. Romanovsky & Frederick E. Nelson & Bernd Etzelmüller & Miska Luoto, 2018. "Degrading permafrost puts Arctic infrastructure at risk by mid-century," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 9(1), pages 1-9, December.
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