IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/sorede/v34y2023i3d10.1134_s1075700723030140.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Macroeconomic Impact of the New Geopolitical Deal on the French Economy

Author

Listed:
  • Jacques Sapir

    (Higher School of Social Sciences and Centre for Industrial Models, Higher School of Social Sciences)

Abstract

French economy has not still existed form COVID-19 consequences that it has been hit by economic consequences of the war in Ukraine and the new geopolitical deal. So far, through an extensive aid mechanism the government has sheltered the French economy of the worse consequences, mostly on energy prices and inflation, of the new situation. Nevertheless, the cost of this aid has been high and could be difficult to sustain. If economic results for 2022 were quite satisfactory there is some important uncertainties looming on the future. The combination of reduced household demand, as increase in production costs seen in many sectors has not yet translated into a corresponding increase in consumer prices, and high energy prices could push the economy into a depression in 2023. The “enchanted parenthesis” known by the French economy is therefore set to end with the beginning of 2023. The extent of the coming recession remains very difficult to estimate.

Suggested Citation

  • Jacques Sapir, 2023. "The Macroeconomic Impact of the New Geopolitical Deal on the French Economy," Studies on Russian Economic Development, Springer, vol. 34(3), pages 308-319, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700723030140
    DOI: 10.1134/S1075700723030140
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1134/S1075700723030140
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1134/S1075700723030140?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "Labor Markets During the Covid-19 Crisis: A Preliminary View," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt7rx7t91p, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    2. Nelson Marconi & Eliane Araujo & Marco Capraro Brancher & Tiago Couto Porto, 2021. "The relationship between exchange rate and structural change: an approach based on income elasticities of trade [New insights from a structural economic dynamic approach to balance of payments cons," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1297-1318.
    3. Yoon J. Jo & Sarah Zubairy, 2021. "State dependent government spending multipliers: Downward nominal wage rigidity and sources of business cycle fluctuations," Working Papers 20210127-001, Texas A&M University, Department of Economics.
    4. Ghassibe, Mishel & Zanetti, Francesco, 2022. "State dependence of fiscal multipliers: the source of fluctuations matters," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 1-23.
    5. Coibion, Olivier & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & Weber, Michael, 2020. "The Cost of the COVID-19 Crisis: Lockdowns, Macroeconomic Expectations, and Consumer Spending," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4jn1x65h, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    6. Mr. Anil Ari & Mr. Nicolas Arregui & Mr. Simon Black & Oya Celasun & Ms. Dora M Iakova & Ms. Aiko Mineshima & Mr. Victor Mylonas & Ian W.H. Parry & Iulia Teodoru & Karlygash Zhunussova, 2022. "Surging Energy Prices in Europe in the Aftermath of the War: How to Support the Vulnerable and Speed up the Transition Away from Fossil Fuels," IMF Working Papers 2022/152, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Laurence M. Ball & Mr. Daniel Leigh & Ms. Prachi Mishra, 2022. "Understanding U.S. Inflation During the COVID Era," IMF Working Papers 2022/208, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber, 2020. "How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?," Working Papers 2020-109, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    9. Martin Beraja & Christian K. Wolf, 2021. "Demand Composition and the Strength of Recoveries," NBER Working Papers 29304, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. Erik Ens & Laurence Savoie-Chabot & Kurt See & Shu Lin Wee, 2021. "Assessing Labour Market Slack for Monetary Policy," Discussion Papers 2021-15, Bank of Canada.
    11. Missio, Fabricio & Araujo, Ricardo Azevedo & Jayme, Frederico G., 2017. "Endogenous elasticities and the impact of the real exchange rate on structural economic dynamics," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 67-75.
    12. Marc Dumas & Caroline Ruiller, 2014. "Le télétravail : les risques d'un outil de gestion des frontières entre vie personnelle et vie professionnelle ?," Post-Print halshs-01141286, HAL.
    13. Attinasi, Maria Grazia & Bobasu, Alina & Manu, Ana-Simona, 2021. "The implications of savings accumulated during the pandemic for the global economic outlook," Economic Bulletin Boxes, European Central Bank, vol. 5.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Auerbach, Alan & Gorodnichenko, Yuriy & McCrory, Peter B. & Murphy, Daniel, 2022. "Fiscal multipliers in the COVID19 recession," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    3. Mr. Tidiane Kinda & Andras Lengyel & Kaustubh Chahande, 2022. "Fiscal Multipliers During Pandemics," IMF Working Papers 2022/149, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Miescu, Mirela & Rossi, Raffaele, 2021. "COVID-19-induced shocks and uncertainty," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    5. Cloyne, James & Jordà , Òscar & Taylor, Alan M., 2023. "State-Dependent Local Projections: Understanding Impulse Response Heterogeneity," CEPR Discussion Papers 17903, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Rosa Caiazza & Phillip Phan & Erik Lehmann & Henry Etzkowitz, 2021. "An absorptive capacity-based systems view of Covid-19 in the small business economy," International Entrepreneurship and Management Journal, Springer, vol. 17(3), pages 1419-1439, September.
    7. Hodbod, Alexander & Hommes, Cars & Huber, Stefanie J. & Salle, Isabelle, 2021. "The COVID-19 consumption game-changer: Evidence from a large-scale multi-country survey," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    8. Olivier Coibion & Yuriy Gorodnichenko & Michael Weber & Michael Weber, 2020. "How Did U.S. Consumers Use Their Stimulus Payments?," CESifo Working Paper Series 8510, CESifo.
    9. Mario Di Serio & Matteo Fragetta & Emanuel Gasteiger & Giovanni Melina, 2022. "The Euro Area Government Spending Multiplier in Demand- and Supply-Driven Recessions," CESifo Working Paper Series 9678, CESifo.
    10. Lena Dräger & Michael J. Lamla, 2024. "Consumers' macroeconomic expectations," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 38(2), pages 427-451, April.
    11. Lee, Jongkwan & Yang, Hee-Seung, 2022. "Pandemic and employment: Evidence from COVID-19 in South Korea," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    12. Oliver Hülsewig & Horst Rottmann, 2022. "Euro Area Periphery Countries' Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy Surprises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 84(3), pages 544-568, June.
    13. Mishel Ghassibe, 2024. "Endogenous Production Networks and Non-Linear Monetary Transmission," Working Papers 1449, Barcelona School of Economics.
    14. Pagano, Marco & Wagner, Christian & Zechner, Josef, 2023. "Disaster resilience and asset prices," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 150(2).
    15. Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf & Sunde, Uwe & Lackner, Mario, 2021. "Covid-19 and the Forces Behind Social Unrest," CEPR Discussion Papers 16756, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    16. repec:diw:diwwpp:dp1954 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Scott R. Baker & Robert A Farrokhnia & Steffen Meyer & Michaela Pagel & Constantine Yannelis, 2023. "Income, Liquidity, and the Consumption Response to the 2020 Economic Stimulus Payments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(6), pages 2271-2304.
    18. Alex Grimaud, 2023. "Unemployment Risk and Discretionary Fiscal Spending," Department of Economics Working Papers wuwp335, Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics.
    19. Cseres-Gergely, Zsombor & Kecht, Valentin & Le Blanc, Julia & Onorante, Luca, 2024. "The economic impact of general vs. targeted lockdowns: New insights from Italian municipalities," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    20. Olesya V. Polyakova, 2023. "Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Different Economic Conditions [Эффективность Фискальной Политики В Разных Условиях Функционирования Экономики]," Russian Economic Development, Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy, issue 10, pages 45-52, October.
    21. Annika Camehl & Malte Rieth, 2021. "Disentangling Covid-19, Economic Mobility, and Containment Policy Shocks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 21-018/VI, Tinbergen Institute.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:sorede:v:34:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1134_s1075700723030140. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.