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Price reaction of global economic indicators: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict

Author

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  • Ahmed Mohamed Habib

    (Accounting and Finance, Independent Research)

  • Umar Nawaz Kayani

    (Al-Ain University)

Abstract

This study investigates the price reaction of global economic indicators due to the coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict, particularly Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil, wheat, maize, Standard and Poor's (SandP) 500 index, Nasdaq stock composite index, and Dow Jones index. The results during these crises were compared with those before to check for statistical differences. Differences analyses using the Mann–Whitney and Kruskal–Wallis tests were used to accomplish the study aims. The results show that the price distributions of the various economic indicators exhibit significant variations. The results also indicate that the primary cause of these variations was a substantial increase in the mean prices of the economic indicators amidst the COVID-19 outbreak and the Russia–Ukraine conflict. In addition, the price variations of the Russia–Ukraine conflict crisis were more acute than those of the COVID-19 crisis in terms of global economic indicators, except for the market performance of the Nasdaq composite index. The findings are consistent with the random walk theory and efficient market theory predictions, as prices are not a random process, but are often impacted by events and economic variations. This study provides insights to assist business executives, stakeholders, policy experts, and investors in planning and executing strategies in a timely and accurate manner, which is essential for adapting to changing conditions and boosting competitiveness and sustainability to react successfully to developing difficulties both now and in the future. This study confirms the importance of rationalizing unnecessary expenditure and enhancing energy, food, and market security. Policymakers should work to attract and stimulate green investments and raise awareness of the existing challenges and the need to overcome them through community participation.

Suggested Citation

  • Ahmed Mohamed Habib & Umar Nawaz Kayani, 2024. "Price reaction of global economic indicators: evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic and the Russia–Ukraine conflict," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:4:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s43546-023-00619-w
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-023-00619-w
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ahmed Mohamed Habib & Umar Nawaz Kayani, 2023. "Evaluating the Super-Efficiency of Working Capital Management Using Data Envelopment Analysis: Does COVID-19 Matter?," SN Operations Research Forum, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 1-20, June.
    2. Bijoy Chandra Das & Fakhrul Hasan & Soma Rani Sutradhar & Sujana Shafique, 2023. "Ukraine–Russia Conflict and Stock Markets Reactions in Europe," Global Journal of Flexible Systems Management, Springer;Global Institute of Flexible Systems Management, vol. 24(3), pages 395-407, September.
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    5. Mingjie Cui & Yufang Zhang & Jinwei Huo & Degang Yang, 2023. "The Impact of COVID-19 Policy Response on Food Prices: A Case Study in China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(12), pages 1-17, June.
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    7. Tamanna Dalwai & Ahmed Mohamed Habib & Syeeda Shafiya Mohammadi & Khaled Hussainey, 2023. "Does managerial ability and auditor report readability affect corporate liquidity and cost of debt?," Asian Review of Accounting, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 31(3), pages 437-459, February.
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    2. OlaOluwa S. Yaya & Derick D. Quintino & Cristiane M. Ogino & Olanrewaju I. Shittu & Dora M. F. Almeida & Paulo J. S. Ferreira, 2025. "Volatility interdependencies of cryptocurrencies, gold, oil, and US stocks: quantile connectedness analysis with intraday data," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 5(1), pages 1-30, January.
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