IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/snbeco/v4y2024i12d10.1007_s43546-024-00750-2.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Impact of political instability of monetary policy conduct and economic activity recovery: empirical investigation

Author

Listed:
  • Ihsen Abid

    (Imam Mohammad Ibn Saud Islamic University (IMSIU))

  • Salha Ben Salem

    (Faculty of Economics Sciences and Management of Mahdia)

  • Wajdi Frikha

    (University of Sfax)

Abstract

This empirical study aims to investigate the effects of political instability on economic volatility and monetary policy conduct. The econometric methodology adopted is the Panel Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (PARDL). The instability variable was determined using the PCA method for 9 countries from the first quarter of 2010 to the first quarter of 2023. The empirical findings show that political instability had a negative influence on economic volatility and threatened monetary policy transmission. Moreover, it is confirmed that while political instability has a short-term effect on economic volatility, its impact on monetary policy transmission is more pronounced in the long term. These findings serve as a warning to policymakers, as political stability plays a crucial role in shaping macroeconomic outcomes through fiscal and monetary policy decisions. Therefore, authorities should strive to establish a stronger and more enduring political system capable of fostering activities conducive to sustainable economic development.

Suggested Citation

  • Ihsen Abid & Salha Ben Salem & Wajdi Frikha, 2024. "Impact of political instability of monetary policy conduct and economic activity recovery: empirical investigation," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 4(12), pages 1-18, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:4:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00750-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s43546-024-00750-2
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s43546-024-00750-2
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s43546-024-00750-2?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Pesaran, M Hashem, 1997. "The Role of Economic Theory in Modelling the Long Run," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 107(440), pages 178-191, January.
    3. Ari Aisen & Francisco Veiga, 2008. "Political instability and inflation volatility," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 135(3), pages 207-223, June.
    4. Daron Acemoglu & Suresh Naidu & Pascual Restrepo & James A. Robinson, 2019. "Democracy Does Cause Growth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 127(1), pages 47-100.
    5. Adnan Haider & Musleh ud Din & Ejaz Ghani, 2011. "Consequences of Political Instability, Governance and Bureaucratic Corruption on Inflation and Growth: The Case of Pakistan," The Pakistan Development Review, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, vol. 50(4), pages 773-807.
    6. Xin-Zhou Qi & Zhong Ning & Meng Qin, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty, investor sentiment and financial stability—an empirical study based on the time varying parameter-vector autoregression model," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 779-799, July.
    7. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco Jose, 2006. "Does Political Instability Lead to Higher Inflation? A Panel Data Analysis," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 38(5), pages 1379-1389, August.
    8. Aisen, Ari & Veiga, Francisco José, 2013. "How does political instability affect economic growth?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 151-167.
    9. Afnan Ghanayem & Gareth Downing & Murad Sawalha, 2023. "The impact of political instability on inflation volatility: The case of the Middle East and North Africa region," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 2213016-221, December.
    10. Dimitrios Asteriou & Simon Price, 2001. "Political Instability and Economic Growth: UK Time Series Evidence," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 48(4), pages 383-399, September.
    11. Godwin Okafor, 2017. "The Determinants of Firm Performance and Bribery: Evidence from Manufacturing Firms in Nigeria," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 647-669, October.
    12. Erdinc Telatar & Funda Telatar & Tarkan Cavusoglu & Umur Tosun, 2010. "Political instability, political freedom and inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(30), pages 3839-3847.
    13. Mohammad Enamul Hoque & Tahmina Akhter & Noor Azuddin Yakob, 2018. "Revisiting endogeneity among foreign direct investment, economic growth and stock market development: Moderating role of political instability," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 6(1), pages 1492311-149, January.
    14. Pablo Duarte & Gunther Schnabl, 2019. "Monetary policy, inequality and political instability," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(2), pages 614-634, February.
    15. Florence Barugahara, 2015. "The Impact of Political Instability on Inflation Volatility in Africa," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 83(1), pages 56-73, March.
    16. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    17. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2014. "The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 458-464.
    18. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    19. Devereux, Michael B. & Wen, Jean-Francois, 1998. "Political instability, capital taxation, and growth," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(9), pages 1635-1651, November.
    20. Casto Martín Montero Kuscevic & Marco Antonio del Río Rivera & J. Sebastian Leguizamon, 2018. "Inflation volatility and economic growth in Bolivia: a regional analysis," Macroeconomics and Finance in Emerging Market Economies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 36-46, January.
    21. repec:hal:wpspec:info:hdl:2441/2976 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Levin, Andrew & Lin, Chien-Fu & James Chu, Chia-Shang, 2002. "Unit root tests in panel data: asymptotic and finite-sample properties," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 1-24, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hanana Khan & Maran Marimuthu & Fong-Woon Lai, 2020. "Fiscal Deficit and Its Less Inflationary Sources of Borrowing with the Moderating Role of Political Instability: Evidence from Malaysia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(1), pages 1-16, January.
    2. Rexford Abaidoo & Elvis Kwame Agyapong, 2022. "Commodity price volatility, inflation uncertainty and political stability," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 69(3), pages 351-381, September.
    3. Zeeshan, Muhammad & han, Jiabin & Rehman, Alam & Ullah, Irfan & Hussain, Arif & Alam Afridi, Fakhr E., 2022. "Exploring symmetric and asymmetric nexus between corruption, political instability, natural resources and economic growth in the context of Pakistan," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    4. Anis Omri & Mohamed Shahbaz & Anissa Chaibi & Christophe Rault, 2015. "A panel analysis of the effects of oil consumption, international tourism, environmental quality and political instability on economic growth in MENA region," Working Papers 2015-613, Department of Research, Ipag Business School.
    5. Dirks, Maximilian & Schmidt, Torsten, 2023. "The relationship between political instability and economic growth in advanced economies: Empirical evidence from a panel VAR and a dynamic panel FE-IV analysis," Ruhr Economic Papers 1000, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    6. Philips, Abiodun S. & Akinseye, Ademola B. & Oduyemi, Gabriel O., 2022. "Do exchange rate and inflation rate matter in the cyclicality of oil price and stock returns?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    7. Maran Marimuthu & Hanana Khan & Romana Bangash, 2021. "Is the Fiscal Deficit of ASEAN Alarming? Evidence from Fiscal Deficit Consequences and Contribution towards Sustainable Economic Growth," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(18), pages 1-19, September.
    8. Sotiris K. Papaioannou, 2020. "Political Instability and Economic Growth at Different Stages of Economic Development: historical evidence from Greece," GreeSE – Hellenic Observatory Papers on Greece and Southeast Europe 151, Hellenic Observatory, LSE.
    9. Tang, Chor Foon & Abosedra, Salah, 2014. "The impacts of tourism, energy consumption and political instability on economic growth in the MENA countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 458-464.
    10. Imène Guetat, 2016. "Economic growth, government size and political instability," Post-Print hal-04097904, HAL.
    11. Osabuohien-Irabor Osarumwense & Drapkin Igor M., 2023. "Global Outward Foreign Direct Investment and Economic Growth Across Income Groups: The Mediating Effect of Home Country Institutions," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, April.
    12. Onatunji Olufemi Gbenga & Adejumo Oluwabunmi Opeyemi & Olabode Oluwayinka Samuel, 2024. "A new perspective on the asymmetric Phillips curve: Fresh evidence from ECOWAS member countries," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 27(1), pages 115-135.
    13. Tang, Chor Foon & Tan, Eu Chye, 2015. "Does tourism effectively stimulate Malaysia's economic growth?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 158-163.
    14. Samargandi, Nahla & Fidrmuc, Jan & Ghosh, Sugata, 2015. "Is the Relationship Between Financial Development and Economic Growth Monotonic? Evidence from a Sample of Middle-Income Countries," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 66-81.
    15. Ben-Salha, Ousama & Dachraoui, Hajer & Sebri, Maamar, 2021. "Natural resource rents and economic growth in the top resource-abundant countries: A PMG estimation," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    16. Obadiah Jonathan Gimba & Mehdi Seraj & Huseyin Ozdeser, 2021. "What drives income inequality in sub‐Saharan Africa and its sub‐regions? An examination of long‐run and short‐run effects," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 33(4), pages 729-741, December.
    17. Siddique, Abu & Selvanathan, E.A. & Selvanathan, Saroja, 2016. "The impact of external debt on growth: Evidence from highly indebted poor countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 38(5), pages 874-894.
    18. Nusair, Salah A., 2019. "Oil price and inflation dynamics in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 181(C), pages 997-1011.
    19. Fromentin, Vincent & Leon, Florian, 2019. "Remittances and credit in developed and developing countries: A dynamic panel analysis," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 310-320.
    20. Luca Agnello & Ricardo M. Sousa, 2014. "The Determinants of the Volatility of Fiscal Policy Discretion," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 35, pages 91-115, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Political instability; Economic volatility; Monetary policy conduct; Panel auto-regressive distributed lag;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • F47 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:snbeco:v:4:y:2024:i:12:d:10.1007_s43546-024-00750-2. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.