IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/ucp/ecdecc/y2006v54i2p349-68.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Impact of AIDS-Related News on Exchange Rates in South Africa

Author

Listed:
  • Kauffman, Kyle
  • Weerapana, Akila

Abstract

This article focuses on the economic impact of AIDS-related news on exchange rates in South Africa. South Africa's HIV/AIDS infection rates are so high that AIDS is now a macroeconomic problem, not just a public health problem. News about the spread of the disease can therefore have significant effects on financial markets. We collect daily data on the number of news stories about AIDS that appear in the Cape Times from 1998 to 2002 and examine the impact of these news stories on fluctuations in the South African rand-U.S. dollar exchange rate. We find that negative news stories about AIDS have a significant negative effect on the value of the rand but that positive news stories have little or no effect. The findings of the article provide concrete evidence of a channel through which the AIDS pandemic continues to adversely affect macroeconomic conditions in sub-Saharan African countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Kauffman, Kyle & Weerapana, Akila, 2006. "The Impact of AIDS-Related News on Exchange Rates in South Africa," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 54(2), pages 349-368, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:y:2006:v:54:i:2:p:349-68
    DOI: 10.1086/497009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/497009
    Download Restriction: Access to the online full text or PDF requires a subscription.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1086/497009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. S. Brock Blomberg, 2001. ""Dumb And Dumber" Explanations For Exchange Rate Dynamics," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 4, pages 187-216, November.
    2. Womack, Kent L, 1996. "Do Brokerage Analysts' Recommendations Have Investment Value?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 137-167, March.
    3. Christina D. Romer & David H. Romer, 1989. "Does Monetary Policy Matter? A New Test in the Spirit of Friedman and Schwartz," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 121-184, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Meese, Richard A. & Rogoff, Kenneth, 1983. "Empirical exchange rate models of the seventies : Do they fit out of sample?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 14(1-2), pages 3-24, February.
    5. Rudiger Dornbusch, 1980. "Exchange Rate Economics: Where Do We Stand?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(1, Tenth ), pages 143-206.
    6. Blomberg, S. Brock & Hess, Gregory D., 1997. "Politics and exchange rate forecasts," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(1-2), pages 189-205, August.
    7. Edison, Hali J, 1997. "The Reaction of Exchange Rates and Interest Rates to News Releases," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 2(2), pages 87-100, April.
    8. Fornari, Fabio & Monticelli, Carlo & Pericoli, Marcello & Tivegna, Massimo, 2002. "The impact of news on the exchange rate of the lira and long-term interest rates," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 611-639, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jeffrey Frankel, 2007. "On The Rand: Determinants Of The South African Exchange Rate," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 425-441, September.
    2. Simon Grima & Letife Özdemir & Ercan Özen & Inna Romānova, 2021. "The Interactions between COVID-19 Cases in the USA, the VIX Index and Major Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 9(2), pages 1-19, May.
    3. Letife Özdemir & Ercan OZEN & Simon Grima & Inna RomÄ nova, 2021. "Determining the Return Volatility of Major Stock Markets Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Applying the EGARCH Model," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 68(4), pages 405-419, October.
    4. Ferhan Salman, 2005. "Information, Capital Gains Taxes & New York Stock Exchange," Working Papers 0513, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey.
    5. Kwadwo Boateng Prempeh & Joseph Magnus Frimpong & Newman Amaning, 2023. "Determining the return volatility of the Ghana stock exchange before and during the COVID-19 pandemic using the exponential GARCH model," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 3(1), pages 1-20, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Faust, Jon & Rogers, John H. & Wang, Shing-Yi B. & Wright, Jonathan H., 2007. "The high-frequency response of exchange rates and interest rates to macroeconomic announcements," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1051-1068, May.
    2. Oscar Bajo Rubio & María Dolores Montávez Garcés, 1998. "Tipo de cambio, expectativas y nueva información: evidencia para el caso de la peseta, 1986-1996," Documentos de Trabajo - Lan Gaiak Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra 9801, Departamento de Economía - Universidad Pública de Navarra.
    3. Rafael R. Rebitzky, 2010. "The Influence Of Fundamentals On Exchange Rates: Findings From Analyses Of News Effects," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 24(4), pages 680-704, September.
    4. S. Rubun Dey & Christopher J. Neely, 2010. "A survey of announcement effects on foreign exchange returns," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, vol. 92(Sep), pages 417-464.
    5. van Amano, Robert A & Norden, Simon, 1998. "Exchange Rates and Oil Prices," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 6(4), pages 683-694, November.
    6. Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2018. "Identification in Macroeconomics," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 59-86, Summer.
    7. Bluedorn, John C. & Bowdler, Christopher, 2011. "The open economy consequences of U.S. monetary policy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 309-336, March.
    8. Ekong, Christopher N. & Onye, Kenneth U., 2013. "The Failure of the Monetary Exchange Rate Model for the Naira-Dollar," MPRA Paper 88238, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Juan J. Echavarría & Luis F. Melo-Velandia & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2018. "The impact of pre-announced day-to-day interventions on the Colombian exchange rate," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1319-1336, November.
    10. Martin S. Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 1992. "Some empirical evidence on the effects of monetary policy shocks on exchange rates," Working Paper Series, Macroeconomic Issues 92-32, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
    11. Gruen, D.W.R. & Gizycki, M.C., 1993. "Explaining Forward Discount Bias: Is It Anchoring?," Papers 164, Princeton, Woodrow Wilson School - Public and International Affairs.
    12. Susanto Basu & Alan M. Taylor, 1999. "Business Cycles in International Historical Perspective," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 45-68, Spring.
    13. Magali Dauvin, 2013. "Energy prices and the real exchange rate of commodity-exporting countries," EconomiX Working Papers 2013-33, University of Paris Nanterre, EconomiX.
    14. Terry Boulter & Celeste Ping Fern Tan, 2000. "The Short Run Impact of Scheduled Macroeconomic Announcements on the Australian Dollar during 1998," School of Economics and Finance Discussion Papers and Working Papers Series 082, School of Economics and Finance, Queensland University of Technology.
    15. Clark, Todd E. & McCracken, Michael W., 2001. "Tests of equal forecast accuracy and encompassing for nested models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 105(1), pages 85-110, November.
    16. Carlos Eduardo Castillo-Maldonado & Fidel Pérez-Macal, 2013. "Assessment of models to forecast exchange rates: The quetzal–U.S. dollar exchange rate," Journal of Applied Economics, Universidad del CEMA, vol. 16, pages 71-99, May.
    17. Iljoong Kim & Inbae Kim, 2005. "Endogenous changes in the exchange rate regime: A bureaucratic incentive model," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 125(3), pages 339-361, December.
    18. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
    19. Prast, Henriette M. & de Vor, Marc P. H., 2005. "Investor reactions to news: a cognitive dissonance analysis of the euro-dollar exchange rate," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 115-141, March.
    20. John C. Bluedorn & Christopher Bowdler, 2005. "Monetary Policy and Exchange Rate Dynamics: New Evidence from the Narrative Approach to Shock Identification," Economics Papers 2005-W18, Economics Group, Nuffield College, University of Oxford.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:y:2006:v:54:i:2:p:349-68. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journals Division (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.uchicago.edu/EDCC .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.