IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/remava/v31y2023i4p1-10n7.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Why Did Housing Prices Rise to a Record Level in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Yaşar Reha Z.

    (Department of Economics, Kirikkale University, Ankara Cd. 7. Km, 71450 Yahşihan/Kırıkkale, Turkey)

  • Bulut Erdem

    (Department of Economics, OSTIM Technical University, (Ministry of Trade of the Republic of Turkey), Ostim, 100. YılBlv 55/F, 06374 OstimOsb/Yenimahalle/Ankara, Turkey)

Abstract

Turkey is one of those countries where housing market has been most severely affected by COVID-19 pandemic. Today the effects of the outbreak have been eliminated significantly. This study retrospectively looks at the days when the world faced a widespread outbreak of a pandemic and investigates the effect of the pandemic and the changes in consumer confidence on housing prices and the volatility of housing prices. Considering the structural breaks in the analysis period (2010:q1-2022:q4 quarterly), we used the Lee and Strazicich structural break unit root test as a research method. The results show that an increase in costs due to a break in the supply chain and containment measures forcing the workforce to stay at home affected the housing supply adversely. It is observable that expansionary economic policies and social assistance programs have a positive effect on housing demand. In this regard, negative supply shock and positive demand pressure are seen to be the determinants of the recent housing price increases in Turkey. However, while there is a positive relationship between consumer confidence and house prices, the effect of house prices on the volatility is statistically insignificant.

Suggested Citation

  • Yaşar Reha Z. & Bulut Erdem, 2023. "Why Did Housing Prices Rise to a Record Level in Turkey? An Empirical Analysis," Real Estate Management and Valuation, Sciendo, vol. 31(4), pages 1-10, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:31:y:2023:i:4:p:1-10:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/remav-2023-0025
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2478/remav-2023-0025
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2478/remav-2023-0025?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia & Maria-Francisca Cespedes-Lopez & V. Raul Perez-Sanchez & Pablo Marti & Juan-Carlos Perez-Sanchez, 2019. "Determinants of the Price of Housing in the Province of Alicante (Spain): Analysis Using Quantile Regression," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-33, January.
    2. Minhua Yang & Junni Zhou, 2022. "The impact of COVID-19 on the housing market: evidence from the Yangtze river delta region in China," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(5), pages 409-412, March.
    3. Esma Aksoy Khurami & Ö. Burcu Özdemir Sarı, 2022. "Trends in housing markets during the economic crisis and Covid-19 pandemic: Turkish case," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(3), pages 1159-1175, October.
    4. Palmquist, Raymond B, 1980. "Alternative Techniques for Developing Real Estate Price Indexes," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 62(3), pages 442-448, August.
    5. Mei Liu & Qing-Ping Ma, 2021. "Determinants of house prices in China: a panel-corrected regression approach," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 67(1), pages 47-72, August.
    6. Shian Zeng & Chengdong Yi, 2022. "Impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the housing market at the epicenter of the outbreak in China," SN Business & Economics, Springer, vol. 2(6), pages 1-20, June.
    7. Clapp, John M & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1992. "Estimating Price Trends for Residential Property: A Comparison of Repeat Sales and Assessed Value Methods," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 357-374, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Victor Ginsburgh & Jianping Mei & Michael Moses, 2006. "On the computation of art indices in art," ULB Institutional Repository 2013/7290, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    2. Andre H. Gao & George H. K. Wang, 2007. "Multiple Transactions Model: A Panel Data Approach to Estimate Housing Market Indices," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 29(3), pages 241-266.
    3. Gatzlaff, Dean H. & Haurin, Donald R., 1998. "Sample Selection and Biases in Local House Value Indices," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(2), pages 199-222, March.
    4. James Bugden, 2013. "Renovations and the Repeat-Sales House Price Index," Working Papers 2013.08, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    5. K. Chau & S. Wong & C. Yiu, 2005. "Adjusting for Non-Linear Age Effects in the Repeat Sales Index," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 137-153, September.
    6. Earl D. Benson & Julia L. Hansen & Arthur L. Schwartz, Jr. & Gregory T. Smersh, 1997. "The Influence of Canadian Investment on U.S. Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 13(3), pages 231-250.
    7. James Bugden, 2014. "Quality-Adjusted Repeat-Sale House Price Indices," Working Papers 2014.01, School of Economics, La Trobe University.
    8. Clapp, John M. & Giaccotto, Carmelo, 1998. "Residential Hedonic Models: A Rational Expectations Approach to Age Effects," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 415-437, November.
    9. Earl Benson & Julia Hansen & Arthur Schwartz & Greg Smersh, 1999. "Canadian / U.S. Exchange Rates and Nonresident Investors: Their Influence on Residential Property Values," Journal of Real Estate Research, American Real Estate Society, vol. 18(3), pages 433-462.
    10. Gerard Domènech-Arumí & Paula Eugenia Gobbi & Glenn Magerman, 2022. "Housing Inequality and how Fiscal Policy shapes it: Evidence from Belgian Real Estate," Working Papers ECARES 2022-31, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    11. Banzhaf, H. Spencer & Farooque, Omar, 2013. "Interjurisdictional housing prices and spatial amenities: Which measures of housing prices reflect local public goods?," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 635-648.
    12. Zahirovich-Herbert, Velma & Gibler, Karen M., 2014. "The effect of new residential construction on housing prices," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 1-18.
    13. Chunrong Ai & Jonathan Feinstein & Daniel L. McFadden & Henry Pollakowski, 1990. "The Dynamics of Housing Demand by the Elderly: User Cost Effects," NBER Chapters, in: Issues in the Economics of Aging, pages 33-88, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    14. Philippe Bracke, 2013. "House Prices and Rents: Micro Evidence from a Matched Dataset in Central London_x0003_," ERSA conference papers ersa13p112, European Regional Science Association.
    15. Denis Conniffe & David Duffy, 1999. "Irish House Price Indices — Methodological Issues," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 30(4), pages 403-423.
    16. Kokot Sebastian G., 2015. "Diversified Price Dynamics in some Sub-Segments of the Housing Market," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 15(1), pages 162-173, June.
    17. David Duffy, 2001. "The Use of Location Variables in a Mix-Adjusted Index for Dublin House Prices," Papers WP138, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    18. Shiller, Robert J, 1993. "Measuring Asset Values for Cash Settlement in Derivative Markets: Hedonic Repeated Measures Indices and Perpetual Futures," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 911-931, July.
    19. David Duffy, 2001. "Does Controlling For Neighbourhood Quality Matter More For Different Types Of House," Economics Department Working Paper Series n1091001, Department of Economics, National University of Ireland - Maynooth.
    20. Case, Karl E. & Mayer, Christopher J., 1996. "Housing price dynamics within a metropolitan area," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3-4), pages 387-407, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    COVID-19; housing price; consumer confidence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F44 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Business Cycles
    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:remava:v:31:y:2023:i:4:p:1-10:n:7. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.