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A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016

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  • Stuart, Rebecca

Abstract

This paper estimates a quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland, using interpolated data starting in 1963. Since only annual GDP data are available before 1980, the paper first discusses how to interpolate them using a multivariate Chow-Lin procedure and by adapting forecast combination methods. The preferred interpolated series is then used to estimate the Phillips Curve over a 50-year period. The results indicate two structural breaks which appear to coincide with shifts in the Swiss National Bank's monetary policy strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • Stuart, Rebecca, 2018. "A quarterly Phillips curve for Switzerland using interpolated data, 1963–2016," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 78-86.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:70:y:2018:i:c:p:78-86
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2017.10.012
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    1. Peter Kugler & George Sheldon, 2010. "Unemployment and Monetary Policy in Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(I), pages 185-208, March.
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    6. Rich, Georg, 2003. "Swiss monetary policy targeting 1974-1996: the role of internal policy analysis," Working Paper Series 236, European Central Bank.
    7. Barbara Rudolf & Mathias Zurlinden, 2010. "Productivity and Economic Growth in Switzerland 1991-2006," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics (SJES), Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics (SSES), vol. 146(III), pages 577-600, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Klaus Abberger & Michael Graff & Oliver Müller & Boriss Siliverstovs, 2023. "Imputing Monthly Values for Quarterly Time Series: An Application Performed with Swiss Business Cycle Data," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 19(3), pages 241-273, November.
    2. Fotini Economou & Ioanna Kountouri & Yannis Panagopoulos & Georgia Skintzi & Ekaterini Tsouma, 2022. "Estimating excise tax revenue elasticity and buoyancy for tobacco products and alcoholic beverages: evidence from Greece," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 54(39), pages 4557-4576, August.
    3. Conti, Antonio M., 2021. "Resurrecting the Phillips Curve in Low-Inflation Times," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 172-195.
    4. Rebecca Stuart, 2020. "The term structure, leading indicators, and recessions: evidence from Switzerland, 1974–2017," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 156(1), pages 1-17, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Switzerland; Historical statistics; Long time series; Phillips curve; E1; E4; N1;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E1 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models
    • E4 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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