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Adaptive Bayes type estimators of ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations

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  • Masayuki Uchida
  • Nakahiro Yoshida

Abstract

We consider adaptive Bayesian estimation of both drift and diffusion coefficient parameters for ergodic multidimensional diffusion processes based on sampled data. Under a general condition on the discretization step of the sampled data, three kinds of adaptive Bayes type estimators are proposed by applying adaptive maximum likelihood type methods of Uchida and Yoshida (Stoch Process Appl 122:2885–2924, 2012 ) to Bayesian procedures. We show asymptotic normality and convergence of moments for the adaptive Bayes type estimators by means of the Ibragimov–Has’minskii–Kutoyants program together with the polynomial type large deviation inequality for the statistical random field. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Masayuki Uchida & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2014. "Adaptive Bayes type estimators of ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 181-219, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:sistpr:v:17:y:2014:i:2:p:181-219
    DOI: 10.1007/s11203-014-9095-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nakahiro Yoshida, 2011. "Polynomial type large deviation inequalities and quasi-likelihood analysis for stochastic differential equations," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 63(3), pages 431-479, June.
    2. Uchida, Masayuki & Yoshida, Nakahiro, 2013. "Quasi likelihood analysis of volatility and nondegeneracy of statistical random field," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 123(7), pages 2851-2876.
    3. Masayuki Uchida, 2010. "Contrast-based information criterion for ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 62(1), pages 161-187, February.
    4. Masayuki Uchida & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2004. "Information Criteria for Small Diffusions via the Theory of Malliavin–Watanabe," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 35-67, March.
    5. Masayuki Uchida & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2001. "Information Criteria in Model Selection for Mixing Processes," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 73-98, January.
    6. Yoshida, Nakahiro, 1992. "Estimation for diffusion processes from discrete observation," Journal of Multivariate Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 220-242, May.
    7. T. Ogihara & N. Yoshida, 2011. "Quasi-likelihood analysis for the stochastic differential equation with jumps," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 14(3), pages 189-229, October.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Kutoyants, Yu.A., 2017. "On the multi-step MLE-process for ergodic diffusion," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 127(7), pages 2243-2261.
    2. Nakahiro Yoshida, 2022. "Quasi-likelihood analysis and its applications," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(1), pages 43-60, April.
    3. Yozo Tonaki & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2023. "Estimation for change point of discretely observed ergodic diffusion processes," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 50(1), pages 142-183, March.
    4. Tonaki, Yozo & Uchida, Masayuki, 2023. "Change point inference in ergodic diffusion processes based on high frequency data," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 1-39.
    5. Haruhiko Inatsugu & Nakahiro Yoshida, 2021. "Global jump filters and quasi-likelihood analysis for volatility," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(3), pages 555-598, June.
    6. Yusuke Kaino & Shogo H. Nakakita & Masayuki Uchida, 2020. "Hybrid estimation for ergodic diffusion processes based on noisy discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 171-198, April.
    7. Shogo H. Nakakita & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2021. "Quasi-likelihood analysis and Bayes-type estimators of an ergodic diffusion plus noise," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(1), pages 177-225, February.
    8. Alessandro Gregorio & Francesco Iafrate, 2021. "Regularized bridge-type estimation with multiple penalties," Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics, Springer;The Institute of Statistical Mathematics, vol. 73(5), pages 921-951, October.
    9. Kengo Kamatani & Masayuki Uchida, 2015. "Hybrid multi-step estimators for stochastic differential equations based on sampled data," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 177-204, July.
    10. A. Gregorio & S. M. Iacus, 2019. "Empirical $$L^2$$ L 2 -distance test statistics for ergodic diffusions," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 22(2), pages 233-261, July.
    11. Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2018. "Hybrid estimators for stochastic differential equations from reduced data," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 21(2), pages 435-454, July.
    12. Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2018. "Hybrid estimators for small diffusion processes based on reduced data," Metrika: International Journal for Theoretical and Applied Statistics, Springer, vol. 81(7), pages 745-773, October.
    13. Yozo Tonaki & Yusuke Kaino & Masayuki Uchida, 2022. "Adaptive tests for parameter changes in ergodic diffusion processes from discrete observations," Statistical Inference for Stochastic Processes, Springer, vol. 25(2), pages 397-430, July.

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