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Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Ciacci

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

  • Ana Garcia-Hernandez

    (Universidad del Rosario and Innovations for Poverty Action Colombia)

  • Jorge García-Hombrados

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Laura Gismera

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

  • Antonio Núñez-Partido

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

Abstract

Using a regression discontinuity design and primary elections to select Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) mayoral candidates as a case study, this paper investigates the causal link between primary elections and electoral outcomes. The results suggest that selecting the PSOE’s mayoral candidate through primary elections has no effect on the percentage of votes and total votes received by the PSOE’s candidate in local elections, the probability of gaining the mayorship and the local government’s stability. On the other hand, the results suggest that PSOE’s primary elections result in increased votes for competing political parties to the right of the PSOE and in reduced votes for competing parties to the left of the PSOE.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Ciacci & Ana Garcia-Hernandez & Jorge García-Hombrados & Laura Gismera & Antonio Núñez-Partido, 2022. "Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 363-396, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-021-00246-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-021-00246-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    2. Guillermo Owen & Bernard Grofman, 2006. "Two-stage electoral competition in two-party contests: persistent divergence of party positions," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 26(3), pages 547-569, June.
    3. James Adams & Samuel Merrill, 2008. "Candidate and Party Strategies in Two‐Stage Elections Beginning with a Primary," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 344-359, April.
    4. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    5. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    6. Hirano, Shigeo & Snyder, James M. & Ansolabehere, Stephen & Hansen, John Mark, 2010. "Primary Elections and Partisan Polarization in the U.S. Congress," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 169-191, August.
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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

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