IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/series/v13y2022i1d10.1007_s13209-021-00246-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party

Author

Listed:
  • Riccardo Ciacci

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

  • Ana Garcia-Hernandez

    (Universidad del Rosario and Innovations for Poverty Action Colombia)

  • Jorge García-Hombrados

    (Universidad Autónoma de Madrid and Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research)

  • Laura Gismera

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

  • Antonio Núñez-Partido

    (Universidad Pontificia Comillas)

Abstract

Using a regression discontinuity design and primary elections to select Spanish Socialist Party (PSOE) mayoral candidates as a case study, this paper investigates the causal link between primary elections and electoral outcomes. The results suggest that selecting the PSOE’s mayoral candidate through primary elections has no effect on the percentage of votes and total votes received by the PSOE’s candidate in local elections, the probability of gaining the mayorship and the local government’s stability. On the other hand, the results suggest that PSOE’s primary elections result in increased votes for competing political parties to the right of the PSOE and in reduced votes for competing parties to the left of the PSOE.

Suggested Citation

  • Riccardo Ciacci & Ana Garcia-Hernandez & Jorge García-Hombrados & Laura Gismera & Antonio Núñez-Partido, 2022. "Primary elections and electoral outcomes: evidence from the Spanish Socialist Party," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 13(1), pages 363-396, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-021-00246-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-021-00246-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s13209-021-00246-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s13209-021-00246-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew Gelman & Guido Imbens, 2019. "Why High-Order Polynomials Should Not Be Used in Regression Discontinuity Designs," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 447-456, July.
    2. Hirano, Shigeo & Snyder, James M. & Ansolabehere, Stephen & Hansen, John Mark, 2010. "Primary Elections and Partisan Polarization in the U.S. Congress," Quarterly Journal of Political Science, now publishers, vol. 5(2), pages 169-191, August.
    3. McCrary, Justin, 2008. "Manipulation of the running variable in the regression discontinuity design: A density test," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 142(2), pages 698-714, February.
    4. Sebastian Calonico & Matias D. Cattaneo & Rocio Titiunik, 2014. "Robust Nonparametric Confidence Intervals for Regression‐Discontinuity Designs," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82, pages 2295-2326, November.
    5. Guillermo Owen & Bernard Grofman, 2006. "Two-stage electoral competition in two-party contests: persistent divergence of party positions," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 26(3), pages 547-569, June.
    6. James Adams & Samuel Merrill, 2008. "Candidate and Party Strategies in Two‐Stage Elections Beginning with a Primary," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 52(2), pages 344-359, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yi & Zhao, Yi, 2022. "The timing of first marriage and subsequent life outcomes: Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(3), pages 713-731.
    2. Thushyanthan Baskaran & Sonia Bhalotra & Brian Min & Yogesh Uppal, 2024. "Women legislators and economic performance," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 29(2), pages 151-214, June.
    3. Koichiro Ito & Shuang Zhang, 2020. "Willingness to Pay for Clean Air: Evidence from Air Purifier Markets in China," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(5), pages 1627-1672.
    4. Fort, Margherita & Ichino, Andrea & Rettore, Enrico & Zanella, Giulio, 2022. "Multi-cutoff RD designs with observations located at each cutoff: problems and solutions," CEPR Discussion Papers 16974, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Adam C. Sales & Ben B. Hansen, 2020. "Limitless Regression Discontinuity," Journal of Educational and Behavioral Statistics, , vol. 45(2), pages 143-174, April.
    6. Pastore, Chiara & Jones, Andrew M., 2023. "Human capital consequences of missing out on a grammar school education," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Teevrat Garg & Maulik Jagnani & Hemant K. Pullabhotla, 2022. "Structural transformation and environmental externalities," Papers 2212.02664, arXiv.org.
    8. Abhishek Chakravarty & Matthias Parey & Greg C Wright, 2021. "The Human Capital Legacy of a Trade Embargo," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1692-1733.
    9. Leopoldo Fergusson & Pablo Querubin & Nelson A. Ruiz & Juan F. Vargas, 2021. "The Real Winner's Curse," American Journal of Political Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 65(1), pages 52-68, January.
    10. Andrew McEachin & Thurston Domina & Andrew Penner, 2020. "Heterogeneous Effects of Early Algebra across California Middle Schools," Journal of Policy Analysis and Management, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(3), pages 772-800, June.
    11. Nene Oumou & Jonathan Goyette, 2016. "Can microcredit impact the activity of small and medium enterprises? New evidence from a Regression Discontinuity Design in Panama," Cahiers de recherche 16-05, Departement d'économique de l'École de gestion à l'Université de Sherbrooke.
    12. Matteo Picchio & Jan C. van Ours, 2020. "Mental Health Effects of Retirement," De Economist, Springer, vol. 168(3), pages 419-452, September.
    13. Köppl–Turyna, Monika & Pitlik, Hans, 2018. "Do equalization payments affect subnational borrowing? Evidence from regression discontinuity," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 84-108.
    14. Jain, Chandan & Kashyap, Shagun & Lahoti, Rahul & Sahoo, Soham, 2022. "Do Educated Leaders Affect Economic Development? Evidence from India," IZA Discussion Papers 15278, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Gazeaud, Jules & Ricard, Claire, 2024. "Learning effects of conditional cash transfers: The role of class size and composition," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    16. Carozzi, Felipe & Repetto, Luca, 2019. "Distributive politics inside the city? The political economy of Spain's Plan E," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 85-106.
    17. Jules Gazeaud & Claire Ricard, 2021. "Conditional cash transfers and the learning crisis: evidence from Tayssir scale-up in Morocco," NOVAFRICA Working Paper Series wp2102, Universidade Nova de Lisboa, Nova School of Business and Economics, NOVAFRICA.
    18. Makkar, Karan, 2023. "Defector Politicians and Economic Growth: Evidence from India," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    19. Mauricio Villamizar‐Villegas & Freddy A. Pinzon‐Puerto & Maria Alejandra Ruiz‐Sanchez, 2022. "A comprehensive history of regression discontinuity designs: An empirical survey of the last 60 years," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(4), pages 1130-1178, September.
    20. Lu Zhang & Lennart Stangenberg & Sjors van Wickeren, 2020. "The information value of energy labels: Evidence from the Dutch residential housing market," CPB Discussion Paper 413.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D7 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:13:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s13209-021-00246-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.