IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/scient/v128y2023i1d10.1007_s11192-022-04536-x.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: growth, open access and scientific fields

Author

Listed:
  • Gabriela F. Nane

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Nicolas Robinson-Garcia

    (University of Granada)

  • François Schalkwyk

    (Stellenbosch University)

  • Daniel Torres-Salinas

    (University of Granada)

Abstract

We model the growth of scientific literature related to COVID-19 and forecast the expected growth from 1 June 2021. Considering the significant scientific and financial efforts made by the research community to find solutions to end the COVID-19 pandemic, an unprecedented volume of scientific outputs is being produced. This questions the capacity of scientists, politicians and citizens to maintain infrastructure, digest content and take scientifically informed decisions. A crucial aspect is to make predictions to prepare for such a large corpus of scientific literature. Here we base our predictions on the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) and exponential smoothing models using the Dimensions database. This source has the particularity of including in the metadata information on the date in which papers were indexed. We present global predictions, plus predictions in three specific settings: by type of access (Open Access), by domain-specific repository (SSRN and MedRxiv) and by several research fields. We conclude by discussing our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Gabriela F. Nane & Nicolas Robinson-Garcia & François Schalkwyk & Daniel Torres-Salinas, 2023. "COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: growth, open access and scientific fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 345-362, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:128:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-022-04536-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-022-04536-x
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11192-022-04536-x
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11192-022-04536-x?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lutz Bornmann, 2018. "Field classification of publications in Dimensions: a first case study testing its reliability and validity," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 117(1), pages 637-640, October.
    2. Hyndman, Rob J. & Khandakar, Yeasmin, 2008. "Automatic Time Series Forecasting: The forecast Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 27(i03).
    3. Lutz Bornmann & Robin Haunschild & Rüdiger Mutz, 2021. "Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    4. Lutz Bornmann & Rüdiger Mutz, 2015. "Growth rates of modern science: A bibliometric analysis based on the number of publications and cited references," Journal of the Association for Information Science & Technology, Association for Information Science & Technology, vol. 66(11), pages 2215-2222, November.
    5. Mark Zastrow, 2020. "Open science takes on the coronavirus pandemic," Nature, Nature, vol. 581(7806), pages 109-110, May.
    6. Ewen Callaway, 2020. "Will the pandemic permanently alter scientific publishing?," Nature, Nature, vol. 582(7811), pages 167-168, June.
    7. Günter Krampen & Alexander Eye & Gabriel Schui, 2011. "Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 87(3), pages 687-694, June.
    8. Adam Palayew & Ole Norgaard & Kelly Safreed-Harmon & Tue Helms Andersen & Lauge Neimann Rasmussen & Jeffrey V. Lazarus, 2020. "Pandemic publishing poses a new COVID-19 challenge," Nature Human Behaviour, Nature, vol. 4(7), pages 666-669, July.
    9. Lin Zhang & Wenjing Zhao & Beibei Sun & Ying Huang & Wolfgang Glänzel, 2020. "How scientific research reacts to international public health emergencies: a global analysis of response patterns," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(1), pages 747-773, July.
    10. Parisa Soltani & Romeo Patini, 2020. "Retracted COVID-19 articles: a side-effect of the hot race to publication," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(1), pages 819-822, October.
    11. J. Homolak & I. Kodvanj & D. Virag, 2020. "Preliminary analysis of COVID-19 academic information patterns: a call for open science in the times of closed borders," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 124(3), pages 2687-2701, September.
    12. X. Cai & C. V. Fry & C. S. Wagner, 2021. "International collaboration during the COVID-19 crisis: autumn 2020 developments," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(4), pages 3683-3692, April.
    13. Milad Haghani & Michiel C. J. Bliemer, 2020. "Covid-19 pandemic and the unprecedented mobilisation of scholarly efforts prompted by a health crisis: Scientometric comparisons across SARS, MERS and 2019-nCoV literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 125(3), pages 2695-2726, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Rousseau, Ronald & Garcia-Zorita, Carlos & Sanz-Casado, Elías, 2023. "Publications during COVID-19 times: An unexpected overall increase," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4).
    2. Moghadam, Talie T. & Ochoa Morales, Carlos E. & Lopez Zambrano, Maria J. & Bruton, Ken & O'Sullivan, Dominic T.J., 2023. "Energy efficient ventilation and indoor air quality in the context of COVID-19 - A systematic review," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 182(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Török, Ádám & Konka, Boglárka & Nagy, Andrea Magda, 2023. "A koronavírus-járvány a közgazdasági szakirodalomban. Egy új határterület tudománymetriai elemzése [The coronavirus pandemic in the economics literature. The scientometric analysis of a new discipl," Közgazdasági Szemle (Economic Review - monthly of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences), Közgazdasági Szemle Alapítvány (Economic Review Foundation), vol. 0(3), pages 284-304.
    2. Constantin Bürgi & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2022. "The influence of Covid-19 on publications in economics: bibliometric evidence from five working paper series," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5175-5189, September.
    3. Mona Farouk Ali, 2022. "Between panic and motivation: did the first wave of COVID-19 affect scientific publishing in Mediterranean countries?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(6), pages 3083-3115, June.
    4. E. Sachini & K. Sioumalas-Christodoulou & C. Chrysomallidis & G. Siganos & N. Bouras & N. Karampekios, 2021. "COVID-19 enabled co-authoring networks: a country-case analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 5225-5244, June.
    5. Milad Haghani & Pegah Varamini, 2021. "Temporal evolution, most influential studies and sleeping beauties of the coronavirus literature," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 7005-7050, August.
    6. Zhao, Yi & Liu, Lifan & Zhang, Chengzhi, 2022. "Is coronavirus-related research becoming more interdisciplinary? A perspective of co-occurrence analysis and diversity measure of scientific articles," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    7. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D’Angelo & Ida Mele, 2022. "Impact of Covid-19 on research output by gender across countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(12), pages 6811-6826, December.
    8. Yves Fassin, 2021. "Research on Covid-19: a disruptive phenomenon for bibliometrics," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 5305-5319, June.
    9. Yujie Zhang & Hongzhen Li & Jingyi Mao & Guoxiu He & Yunhan Yang & Zhuoren Jiang & Yufeng Duan, 2023. "COVID-19: a disruptive impact on the knowledge support of references," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4791-4823, August.
    10. Shima Moradi & Sajedeh Abdi, 2021. "Pandemic publication: correction and erratum in COVID-19 publications," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(2), pages 1849-1857, February.
    11. Breno Santana Santos & Ivanovitch Silva & Luciana Lima & Patricia Takako Endo & Gisliany Alves & Marcel da Câmara Ribeiro-Dantas, 2022. "Discovering temporal scientometric knowledge in COVID-19 scholarly production," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(3), pages 1609-1642, March.
    12. Shir Aviv-Reuven & Ariel Rosenfeld, 2021. "Publication patterns’ changes due to the COVID-19 pandemic: a longitudinal and short-term scientometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(8), pages 6761-6784, August.
    13. Ruhua Huang & Yuting Huang & Fan Qi & Leyi Shi & Baiyang Li & Wei Yu, 2022. "Exploring the characteristics of special issues: distribution, topicality, and citation impact," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(9), pages 5233-5256, September.
    14. Guillaume Cabanac & Theodora Oikonomidi & Isabelle Boutron, 2021. "Day-to-day discovery of preprint–publication links," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(6), pages 5285-5304, June.
    15. Danilo Silva Carvalho & Lucas Lopes Felipe & Priscila Costa Albuquerque & Fabio Zicker & Bruna de Paula Fonseca, 2023. "Leadership and international collaboration on COVID-19 research: reducing the North–South divide?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(8), pages 4689-4705, August.
    16. Bornmann, Lutz & Haunschild, Robin, 2022. "Empirical analysis of recent temporal dynamics of research fields: Annual publications in chemistry and related areas as an example," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    17. Giovanni Abramo & Ciriaco Andrea D'Angelo & Ida Mele, 2021. "Gendered impact of COVID-19 pandemic on research production: a cross-country analysis," Papers 2102.05360, arXiv.org.
    18. Lutz Bornmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "Recent Temporal Dynamics in Economics: Empirical Analyses of Annual Publications in Economic Fields," CESifo Working Paper Series 10881, CESifo.
    19. Leonardo B. Furstenau & Bruna Rabaioli & Michele Kremer Sott & Danielli Cossul & Mariluza Sott Bender & Eduardo Moreno Júdice De Mattos Farina & Fabiano Novaes Barcellos Filho & Priscilla Paola Severo, 2021. "A Bibliometric Network Analysis of Coronavirus during the First Eight Months of COVID-19 in 2020," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 18(3), pages 1-24, January.
    20. Jiban K. Pal, 2021. "Visualizing the knowledge outburst in global research on COVID-19," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(5), pages 4173-4193, May.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:128:y:2023:i:1:d:10.1007_s11192-022-04536-x. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.