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Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Günter Krampen

    (University of Trier)

  • Alexander Eye

    (Michigan State University
    University of Vienna)

  • Gabriel Schui

    (University of Trier)

Abstract

Bibliometric data on psychology publications from 1977 through 2008 are modeled and forecasted for the 10 years following 2008. Data refer to the raw frequencies of the PsycINFO (94% English-language, mainly Anglo-American publications) and the English-language documents of PSYNDEX (publications from the German-speaking countries). The series were modelled by way of exponential smoothing. In contrast to Single Moving Average methods which do not weigh observations, exponential smoothing assigns differential weights to observations. Weights reflect the distance from the most recent data point. Results suggest strongly expanding publication activities which can be represented by exponential functions. In addition, forecasted publication activities, estimated based on psychology publication frequencies in the past, show positive bibliometric trends in the Anglo-American research community. These trends go in parallel the bibliometric trends for the English-language publications of German-speaking authors. However, while positive trends were forecasted for all psychological subdisciplines of the Anglo-American publication database PsycINFO, negative bibliometric trends were estimated for English-language publications from German-speaking authors in 6 out of 20 subdisciplines.

Suggested Citation

  • Günter Krampen & Alexander Eye & Gabriel Schui, 2011. "Forecasting trends of development of psychology from a bibliometric perspective," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 87(3), pages 687-694, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:scient:v:87:y:2011:i:3:d:10.1007_s11192-011-0357-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11192-011-0357-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Heinrich Behrens & Peter Luksch, 2011. "Mathematics 1868–2008: a bibliometric analysis," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 86(1), pages 179-194, January.
    2. Pedro Albarrán & Juan A. Crespo & Ignacio Ortuño & Javier Ruiz-Castillo, 2010. "A comparison of the scientific performance of the U.S. and the European union at the turn of the 21st century," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 85(1), pages 329-344, October.
    3. Peder Olesen Larsen & Markus Ins, 2010. "The rate of growth in scientific publication and the decline in coverage provided by Science Citation Index," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 84(3), pages 575-603, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Günter Krampen, 2016. "Scientometric trend analyses of publications on the history of psychology: Is psychology becoming an unhistorical science?," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 106(3), pages 1217-1238, March.
    2. Chloe Charlton & Ravishankar Ram Mani & Sasikala Chinnappan & Ashok Kumar Balaraman & Thangavel Muthusamy & Chitraabaanu Paranjothy & Deepa Suresh & Sunil Krishnan & Kartik Lokhotiya & Gothandam Kodiv, 2022. "Bibliometric and Density Visualisation Mapping Analysis of Domestic Violence in Australia Research Output 1984–2019," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(8), pages 1-14, April.
    3. Hans P. W. Bauer & Gabriel Schui & Alexander Eye & Günter Krampen, 2013. "How does scientific success relate to individual and organizational characteristics? A scientometric study of psychology researchers in the German-speaking countries," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 94(2), pages 523-539, February.
    4. Gabriela F. Nane & Nicolas Robinson-Garcia & François Schalkwyk & Daniel Torres-Salinas, 2023. "COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: growth, open access and scientific fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 345-362, January.
    5. Oliver Wieczorek & Saïd Unger & Jan Riebling & Lukas Erhard & Christian Koß & Raphael Heiberger, 2021. "Mapping the field of psychology: Trends in research topics 1995–2015," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 126(12), pages 9699-9731, December.
    6. Jabłońska-Sabuka, Matylda & Sitarz, Robert & Kraslawski, Andrzej, 2014. "Forecasting research trends using population dynamics model with Burgers’ type interaction," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 111-122.

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