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Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases

Author

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  • Lutz Bornmann

    (Administrative Headquarters of the Max Planck Society)

  • Robin Haunschild

    (Max Planck Institute for Solid State Research)

  • Rüdiger Mutz

    (CHESS University of Zurich)

Abstract

Growth of science is a prevalent issue in science of science studies. In recent years, two new bibliographic databases have been introduced, which can be used to study growth processes in science from centuries back: Dimensions from Digital Science and Microsoft Academic. In this study, we used publication data from these new databases and added publication data from two established databases (Web of Science from Clarivate Analytics and Scopus from Elsevier) to investigate scientific growth processes from the beginning of the modern science system until today. We estimated regression models that included simultaneously the publication counts from the four databases. The results of the unrestricted growth of science calculations show that the overall growth rate amounts to 4.10% with a doubling time of 17.3 years. As the comparison of various segmented regression models in the current study revealed, models with four or five segments fit the publication data best. We demonstrated that these segments with different growth rates can be interpreted very well, since they are related to either phases of economic (e.g., industrialization) and/or political developments (e.g., Second World War). In this study, we additionally analyzed scientific growth in two broad fields (Physical and Technical Sciences as well as Life Sciences) and the relationship of scientific and economic growth in UK. The comparison between the two fields revealed only slight differences. The comparison of the British economic and scientific growth rates showed that the economic growth rate is slightly lower than the scientific growth rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lutz Bornmann & Robin Haunschild & Rüdiger Mutz, 2021. "Growth rates of modern science: a latent piecewise growth curve approach to model publication numbers from established and new literature databases," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 8(1), pages 1-15, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:pal:palcom:v:8:y:2021:i:1:d:10.1057_s41599-021-00903-w
    DOI: 10.1057/s41599-021-00903-w
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    2. Schmal, W. Benedikt & Haucap, Justus & Knoke, Leon, 2023. "The role of gender and coauthors in academic publication behavior," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(10).
    3. Bornmann, Lutz & Haunschild, Robin, 2022. "Empirical analysis of recent temporal dynamics of research fields: Annual publications in chemistry and related areas as an example," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(2).
    4. Koblianska, Inna & Kalachevska, Larysa & Schlauderer, Ralf, 2024. "Agricultural life cycle assessment: a system-wide bibliometric research," Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, Agricultural and Resource Economics: International Scientific E-Journal, vol. 10(1), March.
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    6. Annika Kreuder & Ulrich Frick & Katrin Rakoczy & Sabine J. Schlittmeier, 2024. "Digital competence in adolescents and young adults: a critical analysis of concomitant variables, methodologies and intervention strategies," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, December.
    7. Galt, Ryan E. & Pinzón, Natalia & Robinson, Nicholas Ian & Baukloh Coronil, Marcela Beatriz, 2024. "Agroecology and the social sciences: A half-century systematic review," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 216(C).
    8. Gabriela F. Nane & Nicolas Robinson-Garcia & François Schalkwyk & Daniel Torres-Salinas, 2023. "COVID-19 and the scientific publishing system: growth, open access and scientific fields," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 128(1), pages 345-362, January.
    9. Bakır, Mahmut & Özdemir, Emircan & Akan, Şahap & Atalık, Özlem, 2022. "A bibliometric analysis of airport service quality," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    10. Haunschild, Robin & Bornmann, Lutz, 2023. "Which papers cited which tweets? An exploratory analysis based on Scopus data," Journal of Informetrics, Elsevier, vol. 17(2).
    11. A. M. Soehartono & L. G. Yu & K. A. Khor, 2022. "Essential signals in publication trends and collaboration patterns in global Research Integrity and Research Ethics (RIRE)," Scientometrics, Springer;Akadémiai Kiadó, vol. 127(12), pages 7487-7497, December.
    12. Schmal, W. Benedikt, 2024. "The X Factor: Open Access, New Journals, and Incumbent Competitors," VfS Annual Conference 2024 (Berlin): Upcoming Labor Market Challenges 302342, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    13. Lutz Bornmann & Klaus Wohlrabe, 2024. "Recent Temporal Dynamics in Economics: Empirical Analyses of Annual Publications in Economic Fields," CESifo Working Paper Series 10881, CESifo.

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