Industrial Dependence on Imports in the Russian Economy: Regional Projection

— The key factors in the regional consequences of the sanctions imposed in 2022 on certain sectors of the Russian economy were disruption of supply chains and industrial relations with foreign companies. The significance of these factors for the regional economy can be assessed in terms of the indicator of production dependence on imports. The study revealed that low production dependence on imports is typical of the least developed federal subjects, which are poorly integrated into the international trade system, as well as for individual federal subjects specializing in the extraction of fuel and energy minerals, for which the import of certain technologies is more important than the mass supply of equipment and accessories. A high level of dependence is manifested in three types of regions: those specializing in machinery industry; those with international ports; and those where large investment projects are being implemented with foreign capital and/or significant purchases of foreign equipment. Although in 2020–2021 production dependence on imports had almost no effect on the overall dynamics of industry, in 2022 this factor again became significant and led to deterioration in the situation in the group of regions with the highest level of dependence on imports. The strengthening of the negative impact of production dependence on imports was, among other things, a consequence of Russia’s import substitution policy over the past decade, aimed at directly replacing the supply of imported goods to the Russian market, primarily by localizing the final stages of production. At the same time, the absence of an incentivization policy to increase competitiveness in export sectors by developing own technologies and production of technological equipment can lead to technological blockage and a long-term industrial crisis in regions with medium and low production dependence on imports.