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Inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions in first-price sealed-bid auctions

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  • Kerim Keskin

    (Bilkent University)

Abstract

It is often observed in first-price sealed-bid auction experiments that subjects tend to bid above the risk neutral Nash equilibrium predictions. One possible explanation for this overbidding phenomenon is that bidders subjectively weight their winning probabilities. In the relevant literature, the probability weighting functions (PWFs) suggested to explain overbidding imply the underweighting of all probabilities. However, such functions are not in accordance with the PWFs commonly used in the literature (i.e., inverse S-shaped functions). In this paper we introduce inverse S-shaped PWFs into first-price sealed-bid auctions and investigate the extent to which such weighting functions explain overbidding. Our results indicate that bidders with low valuations underbid, whereas those with high valuations overbid. We accordingly conclude that inverse S-shaped PWFs provide a partial explanation for overbidding.

Suggested Citation

  • Kerim Keskin, 2016. "Inverse S-shaped probability weighting functions in first-price sealed-bid auctions," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 20(1), pages 57-67, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reecde:v:20:y:2016:i:1:d:10.1007_s10058-015-0183-8
    DOI: 10.1007/s10058-015-0183-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Keskin, Kerim, 2018. "Cumulative prospect theory preferences in rent-seeking contests," Mathematical Social Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 85-91.
    3. Zeynep Kantur & Kerim Keskin, 2019. "On (mis-)perception of probabilities in first-price sealed-bid auctions," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 39(1), pages 726-733.
    4. Zachary Breig & Allan Hernández-Chanto & Declan Hunt, 2022. "Experimental Auctions with Securities," Discussion Papers Series 657, School of Economics, University of Queensland, Australia.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    First-price auctions; Overbidding; Subjective probability weighting; Inverse S-shaped functions;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C72 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory - - - Noncooperative Games
    • D44 - Microeconomics - - Market Structure, Pricing, and Design - - - Auctions
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty

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