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Are earnings better than cash flows at predicting future cash flows? Evidence from apples-to-apples comparisons

Author

Listed:
  • Ryan J. Casey

    (University of Denver)

  • George W. Ruch

    (University of Denver)

Abstract

We compare the abilities of earnings and cash flows to predict future cash flows. We take a novel approach in that we perform apples-to-apples comparisons of five earnings components measured on an accrual basis with their equivalents measured on a cash basis. On the one hand, we find that the operating profit component (sales net of cost of goods sold and SG&A expense) outperforms its cash-basis equivalent in predicting future cash flows. On the other hand, we find that the depreciation expense and non-operating income components underperform their cash-basis equivalents in predicting future cash flows. Additionally, we fail to find significant differences between the predictive abilities of the interest expense and income tax expense components and their cash-basis equivalents. The inconsistent findings across earnings components suggest that unequivocal all-or-nothing conclusions on the relative predictive abilities of earnings and cash flows are unwarranted.

Suggested Citation

  • Ryan J. Casey & George W. Ruch, 2024. "Are earnings better than cash flows at predicting future cash flows? Evidence from apples-to-apples comparisons," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 29(4), pages 3218-3257, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:reaccs:v:29:y:2024:i:4:d:10.1007_s11142-023-09805-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11142-023-09805-5
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Cash flows; Earnings; Predictive ability; FASB;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • M48 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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