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Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation

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  • Amor-Tapia, Borja
  • Tascón Fernández, María T.

Abstract

In this paper we examine how the relative position of a firm's Return on Equity (ROE) in industries affects the predictability of the next-year ROE levels, and the ROE changes from year to year. Using Nissim and Penman breakdown into operating and financing drivers, the significant role of the industry factor is established, although changes in signs suggest subtle non-linear relations in the drivers. Our study avoids problems originating from negative signs by analyzing sorts and by making new regressions with disaggregated second-order drivers by signs. This way, our results provide evidence of some different patterns in the influence of the first-level drivers of ROE (the operating factor and the financing factor), and the second-level drivers (profit margin, asset turnover, leverage and return spread) on future profitability, depending on the industry spread. The results on the role of contextual factors to improve the estimation of future profitability remain consistent for small and large firms, although adding some nuances.

Suggested Citation

  • Amor-Tapia, Borja & Tascón Fernández, María T., 2014. "Estimation of future levels and changes in profitability: The effect of the relative position of the firm in its industry and the operating-financing disaggregation," Revista de Contabilidad - Spanish Accounting Review, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 30-46.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:spacre:v:17:y:2014:i:1:p:30-46
    DOI: 10.1016/j.rcsar.2013.08.002
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Return on equity; Operating-financing disaggregation; Industry spread; Firm size; Ratio analysis; Rentabilidad de los fondos propios; Desagregación operativo-financiera; Diferencial sectorial; Tamaño empresarial; Análisis de ratios;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

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