IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jbfina/v168y2024ics0378426624001651.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

What drives startup valuations?

Author

Listed:
  • Imbierowicz, Björn
  • Rauch, Christian

Abstract

We find that valuations of Venture Capital-backed startup companies invested by mutual funds are driven by their peer valuations rather than their fundamentals, such as operating performances. As startups oftentimes experience substantial valuation changes at their Initial Public Offerings (IPO), we also investigate the share pricing transition of startups from private to public companies. We find that more active pricing of shares prior to the IPO correlates with smaller discrepancies between private and public valuations as well as lower IPO mispricing, suggesting a link between private and public market pricing efficiency. Jointly, our results help investors and regulators achieve a better understanding of the dynamics behind misvaluation in private assets in general, and startups in particular.

Suggested Citation

  • Imbierowicz, Björn & Rauch, Christian, 2024. "What drives startup valuations?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:168:y:2024:i:c:s0378426624001651
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107251
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0378426624001651
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbankfin.2024.107251?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cen, Ling & Hilary, Gilles & Wei, K. C. John, 2013. "The Role of Anchoring Bias in the Equity Market: Evidence from Analysts’ Earnings Forecasts and Stock Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(1), pages 47-76, February.
    2. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    3. Lakonishok, Josef, et al, 1991. "Window Dressing by Pension Fund Managers," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(2), pages 227-231, May.
    4. Malcolm Baker & Brock Mendel & Jeffrey Wurgler, 2016. "Dividends as Reference Points: A Behavioral Signaling Approach," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(3), pages 697-738.
    5. Arthur Korteweg & Stefan Nagel, 2016. "Risk‐Adjusting the Returns to Venture Capital," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1437-1470, June.
    6. Alan Beggs & Kathryn Graddy, 2009. "Anchoring Effects: Evidence from Art Auctions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1027-1039, June.
    7. Sergey Chernenko & Josh Lerner & Yao Zeng, 2021. "Mutual Funds as Venture Capitalists? Evidence from Unicorns [The role of boards of directors in corporate governance: a conceptual framework and survey]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(5), pages 2362-2410.
    8. Steven N. Kaplan & Antoinette Schoar, 2005. "Private Equity Performance: Returns, Persistence, and Capital Flows," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(4), pages 1791-1823, August.
    9. Ming Dong & David Hirshleifer & Scott Richardson & Siew Hong Teoh, 2006. "Does Investor Misvaluation Drive the Takeover Market?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 61(2), pages 725-762, April.
    10. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Rohit Aggarwal & Ram Gopal & Alok Gupta & Harpreet Singh, 2012. "Putting Money Where the Mouths Are: The Relation Between Venture Financing and Electronic Word-of-Mouth," Information Systems Research, INFORMS, vol. 23(3-part-2), pages 976-992, September.
    12. Solomon, David H. & Soltes, Eugene & Sosyura, Denis, 2014. "Winners in the spotlight: Media coverage of fund holdings as a driver of flows," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 53-72.
    13. Cici, Gjergji & Gibson, Scott & Merrick Jr., John J., 2011. "Missing the marks? Dispersion in corporate bond valuations across mutual funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 206-226, July.
    14. Andrew B. Jackson & Marlene A. Plumlee & Brian R. Rountree, 2018. "Decomposing the market, industry, and firm components of profitability: implications for forecasts of profitability," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 23(3), pages 1071-1095, September.
    15. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "The risk and return of venture capital," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(1), pages 3-52, January.
    16. Chang, Eric C. & Luo, Yan & Ren, Jinjuan, 2013. "Cross-listing and pricing efficiency: The informational and anchoring role played by the reference price," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4449-4464.
    17. Ng, Lilian & Wang, Qinghai, 2004. "Institutional trading and the turn-of-the-year effect," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 343-366, November.
    18. Amiyatosh K. Purnanandam, 2004. "Are IPOs Really Underpriced?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 17(3), pages 811-848.
    19. Manju Puri & Rebecca Zarutskie, 2012. "On the Life Cycle Dynamics of Venture-Capital- and Non-Venture-Capital-Financed Firms," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 67(6), pages 2247-2293, December.
    20. Andrew B. Jackson & Chao Li & Richard D. Morris, 2020. "Earnings Co‐movements and the Informativeness of Earnings," Abacus, Accounting Foundation, University of Sydney, vol. 56(3), pages 295-319, September.
    21. Kaniel, Ron & Parham, Robert, 2017. "WSJ Category Kings – The impact of media attention on consumer and mutual fund investment decisions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 337-356.
    22. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:5:p:2145-2176 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Duong, Truong X. & Meschke, Felix, 2020. "The rise and fall of portfolio pumping among U.S. mutual funds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    24. Andrew B. Jackson & Brian R. Rountree & Konduru Sivaramakrishnan, 2017. "Earnings co-movements and earnings manipulation," Review of Accounting Studies, Springer, vol. 22(3), pages 1340-1365, September.
    25. Vikas Agarwal & Brad Barber & Si Cheng & Allaudeen Hameed & Ayako Yasuda, 2023. "Private Company Valuations by Mutual Funds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 693-738.
    26. Firth, Michael A, 1976. "The Impact of Earnings Announcements on the Share Price Behaviour of Similar Type Firms," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(342), pages 296-306, June.
    27. Baker, Malcolm & Pan, Xin & Wurgler, Jeffrey, 2012. "The effect of reference point prices on mergers and acquisitions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 49-71.
    28. Sugato Bhattacharyya & Vikram Nanda, 2013. "Portfolio Pumping, Trading Activity and Fund Performance," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(3), pages 885-919.
    29. Foster, George, 1981. "Intra-industry information transfers associated with earnings releases," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 201-232, December.
    30. Rhodes-Kropf, Matthew & Robinson, David T. & Viswanathan, S., 2005. "Valuation waves and merger activity: The empirical evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 561-603, September.
    31. Sophie Manigart & Koen De Waele* & Mike Wright & Ken Robbie & Philippe Desbrières & Harry Sapienza & Amy Beekman, 2000. "Venture capitalists, investment appraisal and accounting information: a comparative study of the USA, UK, France, Belgium and Holland," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 6(3), pages 389-403, September.
    32. George, Thomas J. & Hwang, Chuan-Yang & Li, Yuan, 2018. "The 52-week high, q-theory, and the cross section of stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(1), pages 148-163.
    33. Ma, Qingzhong & Whidbee, David A. & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Acquirer reference prices and acquisition performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 175-199.
    34. Brown, Stephen J. & Sotes-Paladino, Juan & Wang, Jiaguo(George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Starting on the wrong foot: Seasonality in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 133-150.
    35. Han, Jerry C. Y. & Wild, John J. & Ramesh, K., 1989. "Managers' earnings forecasts and intra-industry information transfers," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 3-33, February.
    36. Vance H. Fried & Robert D. Hisrich, 1994. "Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 23(3), Fall.
    37. Sias, Richard W & Starks, Laura T, 1997. "Institutions and Individuals at the Turn-of-the-Year," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(4), pages 1543-1562, September.
    38. David Genesove & Christopher Mayer, 2001. "Loss Aversion and Seller Behavior: Evidence from the Housing Market," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 116(4), pages 1233-1260.
    39. Li, Xiangwen & Wu, Wenfeng, 2019. "Portfolio pumping and fund performance ranking: A performance-based compensation contract perspective," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 94-106.
    40. Mark M. Carhart & Ron Kaniel & David K. Musto & Adam V. Reed, 2002. "Leaning for the Tape: Evidence of Gaming Behavior in Equity Mutual Funds," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(2), pages 661-693, April.
    41. Li, Jun & Yu, Jianfeng, 2012. "Investor attention, psychological anchors, and stock return predictability," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(2), pages 401-419.
    42. Jia He, 2004. "Quarterly Trading Patterns of Financial Institutions," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 77(3), pages 493-510, July.
    43. Vance H. Freid & Robert D Hisrich, 1994. "Toward a Model of Venture Capital Investment Decision Making," Financial Management, Financial Management Association, vol. 23(3), Fall.
    44. Arthur Korteweg & Morten Sorensen, 2010. "Risk and Return Characteristics of Venture Capital-Backed Entrepreneurial Companies," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(10), pages 3738-3772, October.
    45. Andy Lockett & Mike Wright & Harry Sapienza & Sarika Pruthi, 2002. "Venture capital investors, valuation and information: A comparative study of the US, Hong Kong, India and Singapore," Venture Capital, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 4(3), pages 237-252, July.
    46. Butler, Alexander W. & Keefe, Michael O'Connor & Kieschnick, Robert, 2014. "Robust determinants of IPO underpricing and their implications for IPO research," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 367-383.
    47. Ingolf Dittmann & Ernst Maug & Johannes Kemper, 2004. "How Fundamental are Fundamental Values? Valuation Methods and their Impact on the Performance of German Venture Capitalists," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 10(4), pages 609-638, December.
    48. Gang Hu & R. David McLean & Jeffrey Pontiff & Qinghai Wang, 2014. "The Year-End Trading Activities of Institutional Investors: Evidence from Daily Trades," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1593-1614.
    49. Kwon, Sungjoung & Lowry, Michelle & Qian, Yiming, 2020. "Mutual fund investments in private firms," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(2), pages 407-443.
    50. Julian Diaz & J. Andrew Hansz, 2001. "The use of reference points in valuation judgment," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(2), pages 141-148, January.
    51. Davila, Antonio & Foster, George & Gupta, Mahendra, 2003. "Venture capital financing and the growth of startup firms," Journal of Business Venturing, Elsevier, vol. 18(6), pages 689-708, November.
    52. Gallagher, David R. & Gardner, Peter & Swan, Peter L., 2009. "Portfolio pumping: An examination of investment manager quarter-end trading and impact on performance," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 1-27, January.
    53. repec:bla:jfinan:v:59:y:2004:i:6:p:2685-2718 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Hailiang Chen & Prabuddha De & Yu (Jeffrey) Hu & Byoung-Hyoun Hwang, 2014. "Wisdom of Crowds: The Value of Stock Opinions Transmitted Through Social Media," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(5), pages 1367-1403.
    55. Vikas Agarwal & Gerald D. Gay & Leng Ling, 2014. "Window Dressing in Mutual Funds," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(11), pages 3133-3170.
    56. Gornall, Will & Strebulaev, Ilya A., 2020. "Squaring venture capital valuations with reality," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 135(1), pages 120-143.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Vikas Agarwal & Brad Barber & Si Cheng & Allaudeen Hameed & Ayako Yasuda, 2023. "Private Company Valuations by Mutual Funds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 693-738.
    2. Brown, Stephen J. & Sotes-Paladino, Juan & Wang, Jiaguo(George) & Yao, Yaqiong, 2017. "Starting on the wrong foot: Seasonality in mutual fund performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 133-150.
    3. Agarwal, Vikas & Barber, Brad M. & Cheng, Si & Hameed, Allaudeen & Shanker, Harshini & Yasuda, Ayako, 2023. "Do investors overvalue startups? Evidence from the junior stakes of mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 23-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Hung, Pi-Hsia & Lien, Donald & Kuo, Ming-Sin, 2020. "Window dressing in equity mutual funds," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 338-354.
    5. Andreas Köhn, 2018. "The determinants of startup valuation in the venture capital context: a systematic review and avenues for future research," Management Review Quarterly, Springer, vol. 68(1), pages 3-36, February.
    6. Jiang, Christine & Wang, Xianzhen, 2024. "Portfolio pumping and dumping among Chinese mutual fund companies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 162(C).
    7. Duong, Truong X. & Meschke, Felix, 2020. "The rise and fall of portfolio pumping among U.S. mutual funds," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    8. Ouyang, Liangyi & Cao, Bolong, 2020. "Selective pump-and-dump: The manipulation of their top holdings by Chinese mutual funds around quarter-ends," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C).
    9. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2014. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.3], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    10. Ma, Qingzhong & Whidbee, David A. & Zhang, Wei, 2019. "Acquirer reference prices and acquisition performance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 175-199.
    11. Cristina Ortiz & Gloria Ramírez & Luis Vicente, 2015. "Mutual Fund Trading and Portfolio Disclosures," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 48(1), pages 83-102, August.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2013. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.2], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Gormley, Todd A. & Kaplan, Zachary & Verma, Aadhaar, 2022. "More informative disclosures, less informative prices? Portfolio and price formation around quarter-ends," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 665-688.
    14. Wang, Pingle, 2024. "Portfolio pumping in mutual fund families," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    15. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2012. "Performance inconsistency in mutual funds: An investigation of window-dressing behavior," CFR Working Papers 11-07 [rev.], University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    16. Agarwal, Vikas & Gay, Gerald D. & Ling, Leng, 2011. "Window dressing in mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 11-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. Li, Fengfei & Lin, Ji-Chai & Lin, Tse-Chun & Shang, Longfei, 2023. "Behavioral bias, distorted stock prices, and stock splits," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 154(C).
    18. Mei‐Chen Lin, 2018. "The effect of 52 week highs and lows on analyst stock recommendations," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 58(S1), pages 375-422, November.
    19. Cici, Gjergji & Hendriock, Mario & Kempf, Alexander, 2018. "The impact of labor mobility restrictions on managerial actions: Evidence from the mutual fund industry," CFR Working Papers 18-01, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    20. Eric C. Chang & Tse-Chun Lin & Yan Luo & Jinjuan Ren, 2019. "Ex-Day Returns of Stock Distributions: An Anchoring Explanation," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 65(3), pages 1076-1095, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Mutual funds; Venture capital; Startup; Unicorn; Private asset valuation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jbfina:v:168:y:2024:i:c:s0378426624001651. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jbf .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.