IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/qualqt/v58y2024i1d10.1007_s11135-023-01682-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Soaring inflation in sub-Saharan Africa: A fiscal root?

Author

Listed:
  • Olumide O. Olaoye

    (Thomas Adewumi University)

  • O. J. Omokanmi

    (Thomas Adewumi University)

  • Mosab I. Tabash

    (Al Ain University)

  • S. O. Olofinlade

    (Thomas Adewumi University)

  • M. O. Ojelade

    (Koladaisi University)

Abstract

The study investigates the effect of fiscal policy on the inflation rate in a panel of 44 sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries over the period 2003–2020 using a non-linear system generalized method of moments (system GMM) and the dynamic panel threshold estimation techniques. The results show that the recent increase in inflation rate has a fiscal nature and that monetary policy alone may not provide an effective response. Specifically, the results indicate that a positive shock to fiscal policy (captured by public debts) has a positive and statistically significant effect on inflation, while a negative shock to public debt has a statistically non-significant impact on the inflation rate. Also, money supply exerted a positive and insignificant impact on inflation, indicating that the current inflation rate in the region may not be induced by money supply. However, the joint effect of public debts and money supply shows that public debts aid the effect of money supply on the inflation rate, albeit, not in the proportion predicted by the quantity theory of money. Further, the results also found a public debt threshold point of 60.59% of GDP. This implies the current inflationary pressure may be rooted in fiscal policy and that further accumulation of public debts beyond the benchmark established in the study would worsen the inflationary pressure in SSA. Importantly, the study found that for fiscal policy to spur growth and reduce inflationary pressure in SSA, the inflation rate should be managed and brought within a single-digit framework of 4%. The research and policy implications are discussed.

Suggested Citation

  • Olumide O. Olaoye & O. J. Omokanmi & Mosab I. Tabash & S. O. Olofinlade & M. O. Ojelade, 2024. "Soaring inflation in sub-Saharan Africa: A fiscal root?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 987-1009, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-023-01682-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-023-01682-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11135-023-01682-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11135-023-01682-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, 2015. "Sustainability of fiscal policy in an oil-rich economy: the case of Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 380-401, December.
    2. repec:eme:ijhma0:ijhma-12-2017-0106 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Gómez-Puig, Marta & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón & Martínez-Zarzoso, Inmaculada, 2022. "On the heterogeneous link between public debt and economic growth," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    4. Seifallah Sassi & Amira Gasmi, 2017. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Corruption–Inflation: Evidence From Panel Vector Autoregression," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 458-469, December.
    5. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sow, Moussé, 2017. "Is fiscal policy always counter- (pro-) cyclical? The role of public debt and fiscal rules," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 138-146.
    6. Blundell, Richard & Bond, Stephen, 1998. "Initial conditions and moment restrictions in dynamic panel data models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 115-143, August.
    7. Sims, Christopher A, 1994. "A Simple Model for Study of the Determination of the Price Level and the Interaction of Monetary and Fiscal Policy," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 4(3), pages 381-399.
    8. Francesco Forte & Cosimo Magazzino, 2013. "Twin Deficits in the European Countries," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 19(3), pages 289-310, August.
    9. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2012. "Asymmetric causality tests with an application," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 447-456, August.
    10. Gordon L. Brady & Cosimo Magazzino, 2019. "The sustainability of Italian fiscal policy: myth or reality?," Economic Research-Ekonomska Istraživanja, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 32(1), pages 772-796, January.
    11. Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2020. "The time-varying effect of fiscal policy on inflation: Evidence from historical US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    12. By Mohsin S. Khan & Abdelhak S. Senhadji, 2001. "Threshold Effects in the Relationship Between Inflation and Growth," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 48(1), pages 1-1.
    13. Olusegun Ayodele Akanbi, 2015. "Sustainability of fiscal policy in an oil-rich economy: the case of Nigeria," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 6(4), pages 380-401, December.
    14. Seo, Myung Hwan & Shin, Yongcheol, 2016. "Dynamic panels with threshold effect and endogeneity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 195(2), pages 169-186.
    15. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    16. Law, Siong Hook & Ng, Chee Hung & Kutan, Ali M. & Law, Zhi Kei, 2021. "Public debt and economic growth in developing countries: Nonlinearity and threshold analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 26-40.
    17. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    18. Olaoye, Olumide Olusegun & Olomola, P.A., 2022. "Empirical analysis of asymmetry phenomenon in the public debt structure of Sub-Saharan Africa's five biggest economies: A Markov-Switching model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    19. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Mosab I. Tabash & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Rotimi Ayoade Ogunjumo & Matthew Oyeleke Ojelade & James A. Ishola, 2022. "Macroeconomic implications of escalating stock of public debt: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African economies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 527-540, December.
    20. Bettina Bökemeier & Andreea Stoian, 2018. "Debt Sustainability Issues in Central and East European Countries," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 56(5), pages 438-470, September.
    21. Ida, Daisuke, 2020. "Sectoral inflation persistence and optimal monetary policy," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    22. Muhammad Umar & Moin Akhtar & Muhammad Shafiq & Zia-Ur-Rehman Rao, 2019. "Impact of monetary policy on house prices: case of Pakistan," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(3), pages 503-512, December.
    23. Simplice A. Asongu, 2014. "Does money matter in Africa?," Indian Growth and Development Review, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 7(2), pages 142-180, November.
    24. Peter J. Saunders, 1997. "Inflation, Productivity, And Monetary Policy: Are They Related?," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 3-25, February.
    25. Chen, Shyh-Wei, 2014. "Testing for fiscal sustainability: New evidence from the G-7 and some European countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 1-15.
    26. Seifallah Sassi & Amira Gasmi, 2017. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Corruption—Inflation: Evidence from Panel Vector Autoregression," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 458-469, December.
    27. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Ambreen Noman & Ezekiel Olamide Abanikanda, 2021. "An empirical analysis of government interventions in ECOWAS: evidence from dynamic panel threshold," International Journal of Emerging Markets, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 18(8), pages 1892-1916, July.
    28. Ferrara, Laurent & Metelli, Luca & Natoli, Filippo & Siena, Daniele, 2021. "Questioning the puzzle: Fiscal policy, real exchange rate and inflation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    29. Ghosh, Atish R. & Ostry, Jonathan D. & Qureshi, Mahvash S., 2013. "Fiscal space and sovereign risk pricing in a currency union," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 131-163.
    30. Neaime, Simon & Gaysset, Isabelle, 2017. "Sustainability of macroeconomic policies in selected MENA countries: Post financial and debt crises," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 129-140.
    31. Derick Boyd & Ron Smith, 2006. "Monetary regimes and inflation in 12 Caribbean economies," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 33(2), pages 96-107, March.
    32. Olumide Olaoye, 2022. "Sub-Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: before another debt relief!," African Journal of Economic and Management Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 14(1), pages 86-105, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Phillip A. Olomola, 2023. "Sub‐Saharan Africa's rising public debt stock: Is there a cause for concern?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 91(1), pages 85-115, March.
    2. Olaoye, Olumide O. & Eluwole, Oluwatosin O. & Ayesha, Aziz & Afolabi, Olugbenga O., 2020. "Government spending and economic growth in ECOWAS: An asymmetric analysis," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 22(C).
    3. Olaoye, Olumide Olusegun & Olomola, P.A., 2022. "Empirical analysis of asymmetry phenomenon in the public debt structure of Sub-Saharan Africa's five biggest economies: A Markov-Switching model," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 25(C).
    4. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye & Mosab I. Tabash & Olatunde Julius Omokanmi & Rotimi Ayoade Ogunjumo & Matthew Oyeleke Ojelade & James A. Ishola, 2022. "Macroeconomic implications of escalating stock of public debt: Evidence from sub‐Saharan African economies," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 527-540, December.
    5. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Seema Narayan & Sagarika Mishra, 2011. "Do Remittances Induce Inflation? Fresh Evidence from Developing Countries," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 77(4), pages 914-933, April.
    6. Olumide Olusegun Olaoye, 2022. "Sub‐Saharan Africa's debt‐financed growth: How sustainable and inclusive?," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 34(4), pages 443-458, December.
    7. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2016. "Why fiscal regimes matter for fiscal sustainability analysis: an application to France," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03459336, HAL.
    8. Obaike John Ojeka & Tajudeen Egbetunde & Gideon Oseibibi Okoduwa & Aisha Omobolanle Ojeyode & Mumuni Jimoh & Gideon Oladele Ogunbowale, 2024. "Moderating effect of institutional quality on the influence of debt on investment in sub-Saharan Africa," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 10(1), pages 1-17, December.
    9. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/8g1v863ou8ne8avs9kr75pav8 is not listed on IDEAS
    10. Dennis Bonam & Jasper Lukkezen, 2019. "Fiscal and Monetary Policy Coordination, Macroeconomic Stability, and Sovereign Risk Premia," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 51(2-3), pages 581-616, March.
    11. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8g1v863ou8ne8avs9kr75pav8 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Mahmoud Hachem, 2023. "The Interaction between Policy Mix in Lebanon: Applications of the Nonlinear and Linear ARDL Models," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 13(2), pages 27-45, March.
    13. Pierre Aldama & Jérôme Creel, 2017. "Why Fiscal Regimes Matter for Fiscal Sustainability: An Application to France," Working Papers 2017.01, International Network for Economic Research - INFER.
    14. Baglan, Deniz & Yoldas, Emre, 2014. "Non-linearity in the inflation–growth relationship in developing economies: Evidence from a semiparametric panel model," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 125(1), pages 93-96.
    15. Bajo-Rubio, Oscar & Díaz-Roldán, Carmen & Esteve, Vicente, 2014. "Deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850–2000," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 924-937.
    16. Creel, Jerome & Bihan, Herve Le, 2006. "Using structural balance data to test the fiscal theory of the price level: Some international evidence," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 338-360, June.
    17. Afonso, António & Coelho, José Carlos, 2024. "Drivers of fiscal sustainability: A time-varying analysis for Portugal," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    18. Baharumshah, Ahmad Zubaidi & Slesman, Ly & Wohar, Mark E., 2016. "Inflation, inflation uncertainty, and economic growth in emerging and developing countries: Panel data evidence," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 638-657.
    19. Emna Trabelsi, 2016. "Transparency on inflation of OECD countries? An Application of LSDVC Estimator on a dynamic Panel Model," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 1095-1126.
    20. Combes, Jean-Louis & Minea, Alexandru & Sawadogo, Pegdéwendé Nestor, 2021. "Does the composition of government spending matter for government bond spreads?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 409-420.
    21. Antonio Afonso & Hüseyin Sen & Ayse Kaya, 2021. "Government Size, Unemployment and Inflation Nexus in Eight Large Emerging Market Economies," Hacienda Pública Española / Review of Public Economics, IEF, vol. 235(1), pages 133-170, March.
    22. Maitra, Biswajit & Hossain, Tafajul, 2024. "Exploring price level trajectory in India: Does it validate the fiscal theory of price level?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:58:y:2024:i:1:d:10.1007_s11135-023-01682-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.