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The time-varying effect of fiscal policy on inflation: Evidence from historical US data

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  • Klein, Mathias
  • Linnemann, Ludger

Abstract

We estimate vector autoregressions with time-varying parameters to demonstrate that the impulse response of inflation to government spending shocks underwent significant changes over time. Fiscal spending increases lowered inflation in the first half of the postwar period, but have been inflationary from about 1980 onwards. In contrast to estimates based on models with constant parameters, the evidence for more recent decades is in line with the prediction of basic New Keynesian models.

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  • Klein, Mathias & Linnemann, Ludger, 2020. "The time-varying effect of fiscal policy on inflation: Evidence from historical US data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:186:y:2020:i:c:s0165176519304161
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2019.108823
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dupor, Bill & Li, Rong, 2015. "The expected inflation channel of government spending in the postwar U.S," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 36-56.
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    4. Antonello D'Alessandro & Giulio Fella & Leonardo Melosi, 2019. "Fiscal Stimulus With Learning‐By‐Doing," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 60(3), pages 1413-1432, August.
    5. Rüth, Sebastian K., 2018. "Fiscal stimulus and systematic monetary policy: Postwar evidence for the United States," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 173(C), pages 92-96.
    6. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
    7. Giraitis, L. & Kapetanios, G. & Yates, T., 2014. "Inference on stochastic time-varying coefficient models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 46-65.
    8. Valerie A. Ramey & Sarah Zubairy, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers in Good Times and in Bad: Evidence from US Historical Data," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 126(2), pages 850-901.
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    Cited by:

    1. Olumide O. Olaoye & O. J. Omokanmi & Mosab I. Tabash & S. O. Olofinlade & M. O. Ojelade, 2024. "Soaring inflation in sub-Saharan Africa: A fiscal root?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(1), pages 987-1009, February.
    2. Ismail O. Fasanya & Ayinke Fajobi & Abiodun Adetokunbo, 2021. "Are Fiscal Deficits Inflationary In Nigeria? New Evidence From Bounds Testing To Cointegration With Structural Breaks," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 66(228), pages 123-148, January –.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Government spending; Inflation; Vector autoregression; Time-varying parameters;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory

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