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Artificial neural networks and fuzzy time series forecasting: an application to air quality

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  • Nur Rahman
  • Muhammad Lee
  • Suhartono
  • Mohd Latif

Abstract

The arising air pollution has addressed much attention globally due to its detrimental effects on human health and environment. As an early warning system for air quality control and management, it is important to provide precise information about the future concentrations in pollutants. We present here a time series model in predicting the Air Pollution Index (API) from three different stations; industrial, residential, and sub-urban areas between 2000 and 2009. In this paper, the Box–Jenkins approach of seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA), artificial neural network (ANN), and three models of fuzzy time series (FTS) have been compared by using the mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error, mean square error, and root mean square error. Although all the methods were used as operational tools, the ANN seemed more accurate in forecasting API. The results showed that FTS (i.e. Chen’s, Yu’s, and Cheng’s) performed inconsistent results since the conventional methods of ARIMA outperformed the performance of FTS. However, consistent results were achieved as the ANNs gave the smallest forecasting error compared to FTS and ARIMA. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Nur Rahman & Muhammad Lee & Suhartono & Mohd Latif, 2015. "Artificial neural networks and fuzzy time series forecasting: an application to air quality," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 49(6), pages 2633-2647, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:qualqt:v:49:y:2015:i:6:p:2633-2647
    DOI: 10.1007/s11135-014-0132-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Zhang, Guoqiang & Eddy Patuwo, B. & Y. Hu, Michael, 1998. "Forecasting with artificial neural networks:: The state of the art," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 35-62, March.
    2. Armstrong, J. Scott & Collopy, Fred, 1992. "Error measures for generalizing about forecasting methods: Empirical comparisons," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 8(1), pages 69-80, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Xinyue Mo & Lei Zhang & Huan Li & Zongxi Qu, 2019. "A Novel Air Quality Early-Warning System Based on Artificial Intelligence," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 16(19), pages 1-25, September.
    2. Yongli Zhang & Sanggyun Na, 2018. "Research on the Topological Properties of Air Quality Index Based on a Complex Network," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(4), pages 1-20, April.
    3. Chen, Shuixia & Wang, Jian-qiang & Zhang, Hong-yu, 2019. "A hybrid PSO-SVM model based on clustering algorithm for short-term atmospheric pollutant concentration forecasting," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 146(C), pages 41-54.
    4. Madeline Hui Li Lee & Yee Chee Ser & Ganeshsree Selvachandran & Pham Huy Thong & Le Cuong & Le Hoang Son & Nguyen Trung Tuan & Vassilis C. Gerogiannis, 2022. "A Comparative Study of Forecasting Electricity Consumption Using Machine Learning Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(8), pages 1-23, April.
    5. Lu Bai & Jianzhou Wang & Xuejiao Ma & Haiyan Lu, 2018. "Air Pollution Forecasts: An Overview," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 15(4), pages 1-44, April.
    6. Xiaotong Sun & Wei Xu & Hongxun Jiang & Qili Wang, 2021. "A deep multitask learning approach for air quality prediction," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 303(1), pages 51-79, August.

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