IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v99y2019i2d10.1007_s11069-019-03769-z.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of nonlinear models and groundwater index to predict desertification case study: Sharifabad watershed

Author

Listed:
  • Vahid Habibi

    (Islamic Azad University)

  • Hasan Ahmadi

    (University of Tehran)

  • Mohammad Jafari

    (University of Tehran)

  • Abolfazl Moeini

    (Islamic Azad University)

Abstract

The level of groundwater can also be used in monitoring desertification and land degradation. In this study, three models, namely: partial least square regression, artificial neural networks (ANN), and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system, were used to monitor and predict the level of groundwater and the land degradation index via the Iranian Model of Desertification Potential Assessment method. The groundwater data of 24 Piezometric wells from 2002 to 2016 were also collated to predict the groundwater level. In all models, 70% of the data were applied for training, while 30% of data were employed for testing and validation. Monthly rainfall, topographic wetness index, distance of the river (m), latitude and longitude of Piezometers in the Universal Transverse Mercator coordinate system were the inputs, and the level of groundwater was the output of each method. The prediction performance of both training and testing sets is evaluated by R2 and MSE. Looking at statistical inferences, we found that ANN has the highest efficiency (R2 = 0.96, MSE = 0.71 m) which agree with other findings. We combined the results of ANN with ordinary kriging (OK) and produced a groundwater condition map. According to the potential desertification map and groundwater level index, the potential of desertification had become severe since 2002 and was at a rate of 60% of land area, which, due to incorrect land management in 2016, increased to almost 98% of the land surface in the study area. Again between 2002 and 2016, the land area with low degradation risk decreased from 38,030 ha (39% of the study area) to zero ha in 2016. In 2016, there was no moderate land degradation risk. Using ANN, we predicted that around 99% of the area (95,206 ha) was severely degraded in 2017 and according to groundwater level index, the land degradation increased by 100%. This implies that the area deserves urgent care and reclamation. We also used latitude and longitude of Piezometers as input variables which improved the model. In addition to the target variable, latitude and longitude play important roles in OK and decreased the total error of two combined models.

Suggested Citation

  • Vahid Habibi & Hasan Ahmadi & Mohammad Jafari & Abolfazl Moeini, 2019. "Application of nonlinear models and groundwater index to predict desertification case study: Sharifabad watershed," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 715-733, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03769-z
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03769-z
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03769-z
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03769-z?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Karimi, Poolad & Qureshi, Asad Sarwar & Bahramloo, Reza & Molden, David, 2012. "Reducing carbon emissions through improved irrigation and groundwater management: A case study from Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 52-60.
    2. Sheelabhadra Mohanty & Madan Jha & Ashwani Kumar & K. Sudheer, 2010. "Artificial Neural Network Modeling for Groundwater Level Forecasting in a River Island of Eastern India," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 24(9), pages 1845-1865, July.
    3. Ashrafzadeh, Afshin & Roshandel, Fateme & Khaledian, Mohammadreza & Vazifedoust, Majid & Rezaei, Mojtaba, 2016. "Assessment of groundwater salinity risk using kriging methods: A case study in northern Iran," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 215-224.
    4. Hyonho Chun & Sündüz Keleş, 2010. "Sparse partial least squares regression for simultaneous dimension reduction and variable selection," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 72(1), pages 3-25, January.
    5. Guo Li & Xiaorong Zhou & Jianbing Liu & Yuanqi Chen & Hengtao Zhang & Yanyan Chen & Jianhua Liu & Hongbo Jiang & Junjing Yang & Shaofa Nie, 2018. "Comparison of three data mining models for prediction of advanced schistosomiasis prognosis in the Hubei province," PLOS Neglected Tropical Diseases, Public Library of Science, vol. 12(2), pages 1-19, February.
    6. Samad Emamgholizadeh & Khadije Moslemi & Gholamhosein Karami, 2014. "Prediction the Groundwater Level of Bastam Plain (Iran) by Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 28(15), pages 5433-5446, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sandra M. Guzman & Joel O. Paz & Mary Love M. Tagert, 2017. "The Use of NARX Neural Networks to Forecast Daily Groundwater Levels," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(5), pages 1591-1603, March.
    2. Kostić, Srđan & Stojković, Milan & Guranov, Iva & Vasović, Nebojša, 2019. "Revealing the background of groundwater level dynamics: Contributing factors, complex modeling and engineering applications," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 408-421.
    3. S. Mohanty & Madan Jha & S. Raul & R. Panda & K. Sudheer, 2015. "Using Artificial Neural Network Approach for Simultaneous Forecasting of Weekly Groundwater Levels at Multiple Sites," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(15), pages 5521-5532, December.
    4. Dilip Kumar Roy & Sujit Kumar Biswas & Kowshik Kumar Saha & Khandakar Faisal Ibn Murad, 2021. "Groundwater Level Forecast Via a Discrete Space-State Modelling Approach as a Surrogate to Complex Groundwater Simulation Modelling," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(6), pages 1653-1672, April.
    5. Seyed Ahmad Soleymani & Shidrokh Goudarzi & Mohammad Hossein Anisi & Wan Haslina Hassan & Mohd Yamani Idna Idris & Shahaboddin Shamshirband & Noorzaily Mohamed Noor & Ismail Ahmedy, 2016. "A Novel Method to Water Level Prediction using RBF and FFA," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 30(9), pages 3265-3283, July.
    6. Adib Roshani & Mehdi Hamidi, 2022. "Groundwater Level Fluctuations in Coastal Aquifer: Using Artificial Neural Networks to Predict the Impacts of Climatical CMIP6 Scenarios," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 36(11), pages 3981-4001, September.
    7. Akram Seifi & Mohammad Ehteram & Vijay P. Singh & Amir Mosavi, 2020. "Modeling and Uncertainty Analysis of Groundwater Level Using Six Evolutionary Optimization Algorithms Hybridized with ANFIS, SVM, and ANN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(10), pages 1-42, May.
    8. Haijiao Yu & Xiaohu Wen & Qi Feng & Ravinesh C. Deo & Jianhua Si & Min Wu, 2018. "Comparative Study of Hybrid-Wavelet Artificial Intelligence Models for Monthly Groundwater Depth Forecasting in Extreme Arid Regions, Northwest China," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 32(1), pages 301-323, January.
    9. Julieta Fuentes & Pilar Poncela & Julio Rodríguez, 2015. "Sparse Partial Least Squares in Time Series for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(4), pages 576-595, June.
    10. Xianming Dou & Yongguo Yang & Jinhui Luo, 2018. "Estimating Forest Carbon Fluxes Using Machine Learning Techniques Based on Eddy Covariance Measurements," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-26, January.
    11. Golam Saleh Ahmed Salem & So Kazama & Shamsuddin Shahid & Nepal C. Dey, 2018. "Groundwater-dependent irrigation costs and benefits for adaptation to global change," Mitigation and Adaptation Strategies for Global Change, Springer, vol. 23(6), pages 953-979, August.
    12. Tommaso Proietti, 2016. "On the Selection of Common Factors for Macroeconomic Forecasting," Advances in Econometrics, in: Dynamic Factor Models, volume 35, pages 593-628, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    13. Akshita Bassi & Aditya Manchanda & Rajwinder Singh & Mahesh Patel, 2023. "A comparative study of machine learning algorithms for the prediction of compressive strength of rice husk ash-based concrete," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 209-238, August.
    14. Kawano, Shuichi & Fujisawa, Hironori & Takada, Toyoyuki & Shiroishi, Toshihiko, 2015. "Sparse principal component regression with adaptive loading," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 192-203.
    15. Debamita Kundu & Riten Mitra & Jeremy T. Gaskins, 2021. "Bayesian variable selection for multioutcome models through shared shrinkage," Scandinavian Journal of Statistics, Danish Society for Theoretical Statistics;Finnish Statistical Society;Norwegian Statistical Association;Swedish Statistical Association, vol. 48(1), pages 295-320, March.
    16. Zhang Yuping & Tibshirani Robert J. & Davis Ronald W., 2010. "Predicting Patient Survival from Longitudinal Gene Expression," Statistical Applications in Genetics and Molecular Biology, De Gruyter, vol. 9(1), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Kamrani, Kazem & Roozbahani, Abbas & Hashemy Shahdany, Seied Mehdy, 2020. "Using Bayesian networks to evaluate how agricultural water distribution systems handle the water-food-energy nexus," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 239(C).
    18. Qiang Sun & Hongtu Zhu & Yufeng Liu & Joseph G. Ibrahim, 2015. "SPReM: Sparse Projection Regression Model For High-Dimensional Linear Regression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 110(509), pages 289-302, March.
    19. Lankford, Bruce, 2012. "Fictions, fractions, factorials and fractures; on the framing of irrigation efficiency," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 27-38.
    20. Mohammad Naderianfar & Jamshid Piri & Ozgur Kisi, 2017. "Pre-processing data to predict groundwater levels using the fuzzy standardized evapotranspiration and precipitation index (SEPI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 31(14), pages 4433-4448, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:99:y:2019:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03769-z. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.