IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v96y2019i3d10.1007_s11069-019-03605-4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Identifying climate risk causing maize (Zea mays L.) yield fluctuation by time-series data

Author

Listed:
  • Yuhe Ji

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science)

  • Guangsheng Zhou

    (Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science)

  • Lixia Wang

    (Satellite Environment Center, Ministry of Ecology and Environment of the People’s Republic of China)

  • Shudong Wang

    (Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth, Chinese Academy of Science)

  • Zongshan Li

    (Research Center for Eco-environmental Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences)

Abstract

A long time series in crop yield is usually expressed as a long-term trend and a short-term fluctuation due to agricultural technological advance and climatic anomaly. The real climate risk is related to the short-term fluctuation in crop yield. In the paper, the climate risk of maize yield response to long-term climate variables is tested with the long time series (1961–2015) by a trend base line method. The long time series of maize yield is divided into short-term fluctuating meteorological yield and long-term trend yield. The long time series of climate variables are also divided into fluctuating variables and trend variables. After that, Pearson correlation analysis between fluctuating maize yield and fluctuating climate variables is used to identify risk factor causing maize yield fluctuation. Our results reveal that the main risk factors are night-time precipitation and extreme high temperature in growing season. Comparing climate risks in maize-producing provinces, much more climate risks are identified in some regions such as Liaoning province. The results provide useful information for reducing maize yield loss under climatic change.

Suggested Citation

  • Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Lixia Wang & Shudong Wang & Zongshan Li, 2019. "Identifying climate risk causing maize (Zea mays L.) yield fluctuation by time-series data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1213-1222, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03605-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-019-03605-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-019-03605-4
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-019-03605-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Deepak K. Ray & James S. Gerber & Graham K. MacDonald & Paul C. West, 2015. "Climate variation explains a third of global crop yield variability," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 6(1), pages 1-9, May.
    2. Qingfeng Meng & Peng Hou & David Lobell & Hongfei Wang & Zhenling Cui & Fusuo Zhang & Xinping Chen, 2014. "The benefits of recent warming for maize production in high latitude China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 122(1), pages 341-349, January.
    3. Enliang Guo & Jiquan Zhang & Yongfang Wang & Ha Si & Feng Zhang, 2016. "Dynamic risk assessment of waterlogging disaster for maize based on CERES-Maize model in Midwest of Jilin Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 83(3), pages 1747-1761, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Junjun Cao & Guoyong Leng & Peng Yang & Qingbo Zhou & Wenbin Wu, 2022. "Variability in Crop Response to Spatiotemporal Variation in Climate in China, 1980–2014," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(8), pages 1-13, July.
    2. László Huzsvai & Csaba Juhász & Loujaine Seddik & Györgyi Kovács & József Zsembeli, 2024. "The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jingpeng Guo & Kebiao Mao & Yinghui Zhao & Zhong Lu & Xiaoping Lu, 2019. "Impact of Climate on Food Security in Mainland China: A New Perspective Based on Characteristics of Major Agricultural Natural Disasters and Grain Loss," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-25, February.
    2. Xi Deng & Yao Huang & Wenjuan Sun & Lingfei Yu & Xunyu Hu & Sheng Wang, 2019. "Different Time Windows Provide Divergent Estimates of Climate Variability and Change Impacts on Maize Yield in Northeast China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(23), pages 1-17, November.
    3. Jeetendra Prakash Aryal & Tek B. Sapkota & Ritika Khurana & Arun Khatri-Chhetri & Dil Bahadur Rahut & M. L. Jat, 2020. "Climate change and agriculture in South Asia: adaptation options in smallholder production systems," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 22(6), pages 5045-5075, August.
    4. Qiang Wang & Yuanfan Li & Rongrong Li, 2024. "Rethinking the environmental Kuznets curve hypothesis across 214 countries: the impacts of 12 economic, institutional, technological, resource, and social factors," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    5. Linnenluecke, Martina K. & Smith, Tom & McKnight, Brent, 2016. "Environmental finance: A research agenda for interdisciplinary finance research," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 124-130.
    6. Shahzad, Muhammad Faisal & Abdulai, Awudu, 2020. "Adaptation to extreme weather conditions and farm performance in rural Pakistan," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
    7. Kamini Yadav & Hatim M. E. Geli, 2021. "Prediction of Crop Yield for New Mexico Based on Climate and Remote Sensing Data for the 1920–2019 Period," Land, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-27, December.
    8. Kukal, M.S. & Irmak, S., 2020. "Impact of irrigation on interannual variability in United States agricultural productivity," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 234(C).
    9. Ibrahim Sufiyan & J.I. Magaji & A.T.Ogah & K.D. Mohammed & K.K Geidam, 2020. "Effect Of Climatic Variables On Agricultural Productivity And Distribution In Plateau State Nigeria," Environment & Ecosystem Science (EES), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(1), pages 5-9, February.
    10. Wang, Teng & Yi, Fujin & Liu, Huilin & Wu, Ximing & Zhong, Funing, 2021. "Can Agricultural Mechanization Have a Mitigation Effect on China's Yield Variability?," 2021 Conference, August 17-31, 2021, Virtual 315098, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    11. Seijger, Chris & Chukalla, Abebe & Bremer, Karin & Borghuis, Gerlo & Christoforidou, Maria & Mul, Marloes & Hellegers, Petra & van Halsema, Gerardo, 2023. "Agronomic analysis of WaPOR applications: Confirming conservative biomass water productivity in inherent and climatological variance of WaPOR data outputs," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 211(C).
    12. Riao, Dao & Guga, Suri & Bao, Yongbin & Liu, Xingping & Tong, Zhijun & Zhang, Jiquan, 2023. "Non-overlap of suitable areas of agro-climatic resources and main planting areas is the main reason for potato drought disaster in Inner Mongolia, China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 275(C).
    13. Rogna, Marco & Schamel, Günter & Weissensteiner, Alex, 2019. "Choosing Between Hail Insurance and Anti-Hail Nets: A Simple Model and a Simulation among Apples Producers in South Tyrol," 2019: Trading for Good - Agricultural Trade in the Context of Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation... Symposium, June 23-25, 2019, Seville, Spain 312593, International Agricultural Trade Research Consortium.
    14. Nazan An & Mustafa Tufan Turp & Murat Türkeş & Mehmet Levent Kurnaz, 2020. "Mid-Term Impact of Climate Change on Hazelnut Yield," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 10(5), pages 1-20, May.
    15. Bekkers, Eddy & Brockmeier, Martina & Francois, Joseph & Yang, Fan, 2017. "Local Food Prices and International Price Transmission," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 216-230.
    16. Takuto Sakamoto, 2016. "Mobility and Sustainability: A Computational Model of African Pastoralists," Journal of Management and Sustainability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 6(1), pages 59-75, March.
    17. Anna Florence & Andrew Revill & Stephen Hoad & Robert Rees & Mathew Williams, 2021. "The Effect of Antecedence on Empirical Model Forecasts of Crop Yield from Observations of Canopy Properties," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-16, March.
    18. Pinke, Zsolt & Kiss, Márton & Lövei, Gábor L., 2018. "Developing an integrated land use planning system on reclaimed wetlands of the Hungarian Plain using economic valuation of ecosystem services," Ecosystem Services, Elsevier, vol. 30(PB), pages 299-308.
    19. Florian Schierhorn & Max Hofmann & Taras Gagalyuk & Igor Ostapchuk & Daniel Müller, 2021. "Machine learning reveals complex effects of climatic means and weather extremes on wheat yields during different plant developmental stages," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 169(3), pages 1-19, December.
    20. Ibrahim Sufiyan & K.D. Mohammed & Magaji J., 2020. "Assessment Of Crop Yield And Rainfall Simulation In Nasarawa Town Nasarawa State Nigeria," Journal Clean WAS (JCleanWAS), Zibeline International Publishing, vol. 4(2), pages 75-78, July.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:96:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-019-03605-4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.