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The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns

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  • László Huzsvai

    (Institute of Statistics and Methodology, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Csaba Juhász

    (Institute of Land Use, Engineering and Precision Farming Technology, Faculty of Agricultural and Food Sciences, and Environmental Management, University of Debrecen, Böszörményi 138, H-4032 Debrecen, Hungary)

  • Loujaine Seddik

    (Doctoral School of Plant Sciences, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Páter Károly 1, H-2100 Gödöllő, Hungary)

  • Györgyi Kovács

    (Research Institute of Karcag, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kisújszállási 166, H-5300 Karcag, Hungary)

  • József Zsembeli

    (Research Institute of Karcag, Hungarian University of Agriculture and Life Sciences, Kisújszállási 166, H-5300 Karcag, Hungary)

Abstract

The level of yield variation of primary crops has a considerable effect on the vulnerability of agriculture. The main factor that makes the agriculture of Hungary so vulnerable is climate change, and technological development cannot compensate for its unfavourable effects. We examined the yield failures of the two major field crops grown in Hungary that occurred during the last 100 years. The goals of our study were to determine how often yield losses at 15% and 30% occur, what their probability is and whether the probability has changed in recent decades. The Wald–Wolfowitz runs test was used to determine the randomness of yield failures. A series of yield failures for maize and winter wheat were found to be random. Based on the data for 1985–2023, failure by 15% and 30% can be expected approximately every 8th and 19th year for winter wheat and 3rd and 5th year for maize. Winter wheat yield failure at 15% shows a decreasing trend in occurrence, while at 30% it increases. On the other hand, the frequency of maize yield failure increased at both levels. The consideration of historical yield data can help to determine the extent of crop loss to be expected in the long term to maintain sustainable winter wheat and maize production in our changing climate.

Suggested Citation

  • László Huzsvai & Csaba Juhász & Loujaine Seddik & Györgyi Kovács & József Zsembeli, 2024. "The Future Probability of Winter Wheat and Maize Yield Failure in Hungary Based on Long-Term Temporal Patterns," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(10), pages 1-17, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jsusta:v:16:y:2024:i:10:p:3962-:d:1391127
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Lixia Wang & Shudong Wang & Zongshan Li, 2019. "Identifying climate risk causing maize (Zea mays L.) yield fluctuation by time-series data," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1213-1222, April.
    2. Stavros Kalogiannidis & Christina-Ioanna Papadopoulou & Efstratios Loizou & Fotios Chatzitheodoridis, 2023. "Risk, Vulnerability, and Resilience in Agriculture and Their Impact on Sustainable Rural Economy Development: A Case Study of Greece," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 13(6), pages 1-20, June.
    3. Fatine Eddoughri & Fatima Zohra Lkammarte & Moussa El Jarroudi & Rachid Lahlali & Ahmed Karmaoui & Mohammed Yacoubi Khebiza & Mohammed Messouli, 2022. "Analysis of the Vulnerability of Agriculture to Climate and Anthropogenic Impacts in the Beni Mellal-Khénifra Region, Morocco," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(20), pages 1-16, October.
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