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Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa

Author

Listed:
  • Nathan Wood

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Jeanne M. Jones

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Yoshiki Yamazaki

    (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)

  • Kwok-Fai Cheung

    (University of Hawai’i at Manoa)

  • Jacinta Brown

    (American Samoa Department of Homeland Security)

  • Jamie L. Jones

    (United States Geological Survey)

  • Nina Abdollahian

    (United States Geological Survey)

Abstract

Population vulnerability from tsunamis is a function of the number and location of individuals in hazard zones and their ability to reach safety before wave arrival. Previous tsunami disasters can provide insight on likely evacuation behavior, but post-disaster assessments have not been used extensively in evacuation modeling. We demonstrate the utility of post-disaster assessments in pedestrian evacuation modeling for tsunami hazards and use the US territory of American Samoa as our case study. We model pedestrian travel times out of tsunami inundation zones recreated for the 2009 Mw 8.1 Samoa earthquake, as well as for a probable maximum tsunami zone for future threats. Modeling assumptions are guided by fatality trends and observations of 2009 evacuation behavior, including insights on departure delays, environmental cues, transportation mode, and demographic characteristics. Differences in actual fatalities from the 2009 disaster and modeled population vulnerability suggest that a single set of estimated travel times to safety does not fully characterize evacuation potential of a dispersed, at-risk population. Efforts to prepare coastal communities in American Samoa for future tsunamis may be challenging given substantial differences in wave characteristics and evacuation potential of the probable maximum hazard compared to the 2009 event.

Suggested Citation

  • Nathan Wood & Jeanne M. Jones & Yoshiki Yamazaki & Kwok-Fai Cheung & Jacinta Brown & Jamie L. Jones & Nina Abdollahian, 2019. "Population vulnerability to tsunami hazards informed by previous and projected disasters: a case study of American Samoa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(3), pages 505-528, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:95:y:2019:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3493-7
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3493-7
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Nathan Wood & Christopher Burton & Susan Cutter, 2010. "Community variations in social vulnerability to Cascadia-related tsunamis in the U.S. Pacific Northwest," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(2), pages 369-389, February.
    2. Sangki Park & John van de Lindt & Rakesh Gupta & Daniel Cox, 2012. "Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 891-908, September.
    3. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    4. Manuela Di Mauro & Kusnowidjaia Megawati & Veronica Cedillos & Brian Tucker, 2013. "Tsunami risk reduction for densely populated Southeast Asian cities: analysis of vehicular and pedestrian evacuation for the city of Padang, Indonesia, and assessment of interventions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 373-404, September.
    5. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2013. "Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1603-1628, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Alexa Tanner & Ryan Reynolds, 2020. "The near-miss of a tsunami and an emergency evacuation: the post-exposure effects on future emergency preparedness and evacuation intentions," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(2), pages 1679-1693, November.

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