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A GIS-based analysis of constraints on pedestrian tsunami evacuation routes: Cascais case study (Portugal)

Author

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  • André Trindade

    (CERU – European Centre on Urban Risks)

  • Paula Teves-Costa

    (CERU – European Centre on Urban Risks
    Universidade de Lisboa)

  • Cristina Catita

    (Universidade de Lisboa)

Abstract

Tsunami hazard in coastal areas susceptible to flooding, although reduced (in terms of probability of occurrence), may pose a high risk. Therefore, in these areas, a detailed evacuation planning of the affected population is required as a risk mitigation measure. The knowledge and enforcement of evacuation routes may reduce the population vulnerability, making it more resilient and reducing risk. This paper presents a GIS approach for modelling evacuation routes based on the optimal path search problem, of the graph theory, which is implemented on ArcCasper tool. The methodology proposed considers the elements involved in the evacuation process, the worst credible tsunami inundation scenario (hazard extent and travel time), the number of people that needs to be evacuated in different time scenarios, the safe areas or destination points of the evacuation routes, the roads network characteristics and finally the time available to evacuate. The knowledge of those elements allows predicting some possible outcomes of the evacuation, such as the arrival time of the evacuees to a shelter and the identification of congestion hot spots resulting from the application of a flocking model which simulates the path to be used by evacuees avoiding obstacles. The municipality of Cascais was used to test the methodology proposed in this study. Cascais is one of the largest urban centres located about 25 km west of Lisbon, Portugal, with a high density of infrastructure along the coastline whereby most of the population and economic activities are exposed to a tsunami. The results, presented in the form of maps, allow identifying the optimal evacuation routes as well as the unfeasible routes. This crucial information could be used to the evacuation optimization regarding the location of meeting points and vertical shelters as well as to improve the accessibility of the areas to be evacuated.

Suggested Citation

  • André Trindade & Paula Teves-Costa & Cristina Catita, 2018. "A GIS-based analysis of constraints on pedestrian tsunami evacuation routes: Cascais case study (Portugal)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 169-185, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3152-4
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3152-4
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ribeiro, A. & Mendes-Victor, L. & Cabral, J. & Matias, L. & Terrinha, P., 2006. "The 1755 Lisbon earthquake and the beginning of closure of the Atlantic," European Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(2), pages 193-205, May.
    2. Sangki Park & John van de Lindt & Rakesh Gupta & Daniel Cox, 2012. "Method to determine the locations of tsunami vertical evacuation shelters," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 63(2), pages 891-908, September.
    3. Sergio Freire & Christoph Aubrecht & Stephanie Wegscheider, 2013. "Advancing tsunami risk assessment by improving spatio-temporal population exposure and evacuation modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(3), pages 1311-1324, September.
    4. Nathan Wood & Mathew Schmidtlein, 2013. "Community variations in population exposure to near-field tsunami hazards as a function of pedestrian travel time to safety," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 65(3), pages 1603-1628, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Murray, Alan T., 2021. "Contemporary optimization application through geographic information systems," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    2. Fernando Morante-Carballo & Miguel Gurumendi-Noriega & Juan Cumbe-Vásquez & Lady Bravo-Montero & Paúl Carrión-Mero, 2022. "Georesources as an Alternative for Sustainable Development in COVID-19 Times—A Study Case in Ecuador," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-30, June.

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