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Design rainfall estimation: comparison between GEV and LP3 distributions and at-site and regional estimates

Author

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  • Evan Hajani

    (Western Sydney University)

  • Ataur Rahman

    (Western Sydney University)

Abstract

Design rainfall, often known as intensity–frequency–duration (IFD) data, is an important input in rainfall runoff modelling exercise. IFD data are derived by fitting a probability distribution to observed rainfall data. Although there are many researches on IFD curves in the literature, there is a lack of systematic comparison among the IFD curves obtained by different distributions and methods. This study compares the latest IFD curves in Australia, published in 2013, as a part of the new Australian rainfall and runoff (ARR) with the at-site IFD curves to examine the expected degree of variation between the at-site and regional IFD data. Ten pluviography stations from eastern New South Wales (NSW) are selected for this study. The IFD curves generated by the two most commonly adopted probability distributions, generalised extreme value (GEV) and log Pearson type 3 (LP3) distributions are also compared. Empirical and polynomial regression methods in smoothing the IFD curves are compared. Based on the three goodness-of-fit tests, it has been found that both GEV and LP3 distributions fit the annual maximum rainfall data (at 1% significance level) for the ten selected stations. The developed IFD curves based on the second-degree polynomial present better fitting than the empirical method. It has been found that the ARR87 and ARR13 IFD curves are generally higher than the at-site IFD curves derived here. The median difference between the at-site and regional ARR-recommended IFD curves is in the range of 13–19%. It is expected that the outcomes of this research will provide better guidance in selecting the correct IFD data for a given application in NSW. The methodology developed here can be adapted to other parts of Australia and other countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Evan Hajani & Ataur Rahman, 2018. "Design rainfall estimation: comparison between GEV and LP3 distributions and at-site and regional estimates," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 93(1), pages 67-88, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:93:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-018-3289-9
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-018-3289-9
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Elias Garcia-Urquia, 2016. "Establishing rainfall frequency contour lines as thresholds for rainfall-induced landslides in Tegucigalpa, Honduras, 1980–2005," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(3), pages 2107-2132, July.
    2. Jiandong Liu & Chi Doan & Shie-Yui Liong & Richard Sanders & Anh Dao & Timothy Fewtrell, 2015. "Regional frequency analysis of extreme rainfall events in Jakarta," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1075-1104, January.
    3. Khaled Haddad & Ataur Rahman, 2014. "Derivation of short-duration design rainfalls using daily rainfall statistics," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 1391-1401, December.
    4. Hong Du & Jun Xia & Sidong Zeng, 2014. "Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 195-215, January.
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