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Extreme streamflow drought in the Karkheh river basin (Iran): probabilistic and regional analyses

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  • Reza Zamani
  • Hossein Tabari
  • Patrick Willems

Abstract

Analysis of droughts from both the regional and probabilistic points of view is crucial in drought-prone arid and semiarid lands. In this work, the probabilistic behavior and spatial pattern of extreme hydrological droughts based on the minimum streamflow drought index values at 3-, 6-, 9- and 12-month time scales were analyzed by using L-moments in the Karkheh river basin in the southwest of Iran. The results indicated that for the 3-month time scale, the region was homogenous, while for larger time scales the region was divided into two subregions. For all time scales and subregions, the Pearson Type III and Generalized Pareto distributions provided a better fit to the data than the generalized logistic, generalized extreme value and log-normal distributions. The simulation results of the estimated regional quantiles showed that the accuracy of the quantile estimates decreased as return period increased. Furthermore, higher probability of severe droughts is expected at regional scale compared with site scale. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Reza Zamani & Hossein Tabari & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Extreme streamflow drought in the Karkheh river basin (Iran): probabilistic and regional analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(1), pages 327-346, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:1:p:327-346
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1492-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Isameldin Atiem & Nilgün Harmancio˘lu, 2006. "Assessment of Regional Floods Using L-Moments Approach: The Case of The River Nile," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 20(5), pages 723-747, October.
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    3. Hossein Tabari & Jaefar Nikbakht & P. Hosseinzadeh Talaee, 2013. "Hydrological Drought Assessment in Northwestern Iran Based on Streamflow Drought Index (SDI)," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 27(1), pages 137-151, January.
    4. Hong Du & Jun Xia & Sidong Zeng, 2014. "Regional frequency analysis of extreme precipitation and its spatio-temporal characteristics in the Huai River Basin, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 195-215, January.
    5. I. Nalbantis & G. Tsakiris, 2009. "Assessment of Hydrological Drought Revisited," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 23(5), pages 881-897, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Hossein Tabari & Reza Zamani & Hossein Rahmati & Patrick Willems, 2015. "Markov Chains of Different Orders for Streamflow Drought Analysis," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 29(9), pages 3441-3457, July.
    2. Ali Ahani & S. Saeid Mousavi Nadoushani & Ali Moridi, 2020. "Regionalization of watersheds based on the concept of rough set," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 104(1), pages 883-899, October.
    3. T. Thomas & R. K. Jaiswal & Ravi Galkate & P. C. Nayak & N. C. Ghosh, 2016. "Drought indicators-based integrated assessment of drought vulnerability: a case study of Bundelkhand droughts in central India," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(3), pages 1627-1652, April.
    4. Chen-Feng Yeh & Jinge Wang & Hsin-Fu Yeh & Cheng-Haw Lee, 2015. "SDI and Markov Chains for Regional Drought Characteristics," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(8), pages 1-20, August.
    5. Anas Mahmood Al-Juboori, 2023. "Prediction of Hydrological Drought in Semi-arid Regions Using a Novel Hybrid Model," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 37(9), pages 3657-3669, July.
    6. Reza Zamani & Hossein Tabari & Patrick Willems, 2016. "Reply to discussion of “Extreme streamflow drought in the Karkheh river basin (Iran): probabilistic and regional analyses”," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 19-22, January.
    7. V. K. Prajapati & M. Khanna & M. Singh & R. Kaur & R. N. Sahoo & D. K. Singh, 2021. "Evaluation of time scale of meteorological, hydrological and agricultural drought indices," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 89-109, October.

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