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Deriving the rainfall threshold for shallow landslide early warning during tropical cyclones: a case study in northern Philippines

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  • Dymphna Nolasco-Javier

    (University of New England
    University of the Philippines)

  • Lalit Kumar

    (University of New England)

Abstract

Rainfall-induced landslides (RILs) have been a source of social and economic disruption in the mountainous Baguio area in northern Philippines. Prolonged heavy rainfall usually happens during tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon activity. A pragmatic approach to RIL mitigation is to develop rainfall-based early warning. We implemented a modified regression method to derive the empirical minimum intensity (I)–duration (D) threshold I = 6.46 D −0.28 and a normalized ID threshold NI = 0.002 D −0.28 for rainfall duration ranging between 24 and 264 h. Using a separate data set to evaluate the applicability of the threshold, 93% of the landslide-triggering rainfall events fell above the derived threshold. RILs also occurred when 24-h rainfall was 0.02–28% of the mean annual precipitation or after accumulating at least 500 mm of rainfall from the onset of the rainy season. The thresholds may be further refined as more landslide data become available in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Dymphna Nolasco-Javier & Lalit Kumar, 2018. "Deriving the rainfall threshold for shallow landslide early warning during tropical cyclones: a case study in northern Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 90(2), pages 921-941, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:90:y:2018:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-3081-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-3081-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Min Lee & Kim Ng & Yuk Huang & Wei Li, 2014. "Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 353-375, January.
    2. Dymphna Nolasco-Javier & Lalit Kumar & Arlene Tengonciang, 2015. "Rapid appraisal of rainfall threshold and selected landslides in Baguio, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1587-1607, September.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Bequet, Ludovic, 2020. "Biotech Crops, Input Use and Landslides: The case of Genetically Modified Corn in the Philippine Highlands," MPRA Paper 98225, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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