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A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Laura Sanchez-Castillo

    (Kyoto University)

  • Tetsuya Kubota

    (Kyushu University)

  • Israel Cantú-Silva

    (Autonomous University of Nuevo Leon)

  • Toshiyuki Moriyama

    (Fukuoka Institute of Technology)

  • Hasnawir

    (Ministry of Environment and Forestry of Indonesia)

Abstract

Sediment-related disasters may cause high casualties and economic losses in mountainous zones. The occurrence of these natural hazards in developing countries, where recovery efforts usually exceed the available resources, brings to the fore the urgent need to develop rainfall criteria, in order to understand, mitigate and reduce to the barest minimum the adversities with the available data resources. Unfortunately, many restrictions are encountered in developing countries, for example in Mexico: historical rainfall information is difficult to access and if available, it is only on a daily basis, thereby, making rainfall criteria development almost impossible. Therefore, this research provides a disaster probability approach named interim zone using the relationship between the disaster occurrence and rainfall episodes, in order to be used as a rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico. From the total rainfall data by rainfall episodes, we could establish an interim zone where 71.9 mm is the minimum amount of rainfall needed to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 112.6 mm is the amount of rainfall if exceeded makes the probability of disaster occurrence high. Using maximum intensity, the interim zone is within 57.7 mm/day as minimum value to trigger a sediment-related disaster and 83.6 mm/day as the amount high likely to cause a sediment-related disaster.

Suggested Citation

  • Laura Sanchez-Castillo & Tetsuya Kubota & Israel Cantú-Silva & Toshiyuki Moriyama & Hasnawir, 2017. "A probability method of rainfall warning for sediment-related disaster in developing countries: a case study in Sierra Madre Oriental, Mexico," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(3), pages 1893-1906, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2669-2
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2669-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Min Lee & Kim Ng & Yuk Huang & Wei Li, 2014. "Rainfall-induced landslides in Hulu Kelang area, Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 353-375, January.
    2. Dymphna Nolasco-Javier & Lalit Kumar & Arlene Tengonciang, 2015. "Rapid appraisal of rainfall threshold and selected landslides in Baguio, Philippines," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(3), pages 1587-1607, September.
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