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The applicability of Standardized Precipitation Index: drought characterization for early warning system and weather index insurance in West Africa

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  • J. N. Okpara

    (University of Oklahoma
    Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport
    Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA))

  • E. A. Afiesimama

    (World Meteorological Organization)

  • A. C. Anuforom

    (Nnamdi Azikiwe International Airport)

  • A. Owino

    (Western Connecticut State University)

  • K. O. Ogunjobi

    (Federal University of Technology, Akure (FUTA))

Abstract

The Niger River basin is drought-prone, and farmers are often exposed to the vagaries of severe weather and extreme climate events of the region. Spatiotemporal characteristics of drought are important for its mitigation. With 52 years of gauged-based monthly rainfall, the study investigates the potentials of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) as standard measure for meteorological drought, its characterization, early warning systems and use in weather index-based insurance. Gamma probability distribution type 2, which best fits the rainfall frequency distribution of the region, was used for the transformation of the skewed rainfall data to derive the SPI. Results showed 9, 5, 5 and 6 drought events of severe to extreme intensities occurred in the headwaters of the basin, inner delta, middle Niger, and lower Niger sub-watersheds, respectively. Their magnitudes were in the range 1–5, 2–6, 2–8 and 2–7, respectively. Spatially, results further showed that the 1970s and 1980s drought events were dominantly of moderate (SPI values −1 to −1.49) and severe (SPI values −1.5 to −1.99) intensities, respectively, with sporadic cases of severe to extreme drought intensities occurring in 1970s and extreme to exceptional intensities in the 1980s. Further investigations show that 3-month SPI indicated 85% of variance in the standardized cereal crop yield, which suites well as weather index insurance variable. The study therefore proposes SPI weather index-based insurance as a pathway forward to ameliorate the negative impacts on insured farmers in this region in terms of indemnity payouts whenever drought disaster occurs.

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  • J. N. Okpara & E. A. Afiesimama & A. C. Anuforom & A. Owino & K. O. Ogunjobi, 2017. "The applicability of Standardized Precipitation Index: drought characterization for early warning system and weather index insurance in West Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 89(2), pages 555-583, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:89:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2980-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2980-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Vasco Molini & Michiel Keyzer & Bart van den Boom & Wouter Zant & Nicholas Nsowah-Nuamah, 2010. "Safety Nets and Index-Based Insurance: Historical Assessment and Semiparametric Simulation for Northern Ghana," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 671-712, July.
    2. Juddy Okpara & Aondover Tarhule & M. Perumal, 2013. "Study of Climate Change in Niger River Basin, West Africa: Reality Not a Myth," Chapters, in: Bharat Raj Singh (ed.), Climate Change - Realities, Impacts Over Ice Cap, Sea Level and Risks, IntechOpen.
    3. Alexis Berg & Philippe Quirion & Benjamin Sultan, 2009. "Weather-index drought insurance in Burkina-Faso: assessment of its potential interest to farmers," Post-Print hal-00520893, HAL.
    4. Jerry R. Skees & Barry J. Barnett, 1999. "Conceptual and Practical Considerations for Sharing Catastrophic/Systemic Risks," Review of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 21(2), pages 424-441.
    5. Boubacar, Inoussa, 2010. "The Effects of Drought on Crop Yields and Yield Variability in Sahel," 2010 Annual Meeting, February 6-9, 2010, Orlando, Florida 56322, Southern Agricultural Economics Association.
    6. Sommarat Chantarat & Christopher B. Barrett & Andrew G. Mude & Calum G. Turvey, 2007. "Using Weather Index Insurance to Improve Drought Response for Famine Prevention," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 89(5), pages 1262-1268.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bilel Zerouali & Mohamed Chettih & Zaki Abda & Mohamed Mesbah & Celso Augusto Guimarães Santos & Reginaldo Moura Brasil Neto & Richarde Marques Silva, 2021. "Spatiotemporal meteorological drought assessment in a humid Mediterranean region: case study of the Oued Sebaou basin (northern central Algeria)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 689-709, August.
    2. Eltazarov, Sarvarbek & Bobojonov, Ihtiyor & Kuhn, Lena & Glauben, Thomas, 2021. "Mapping weather risk – A multi-indicator analysis of satellite-based weather data for agricultural index insurance development in semi-arid and arid zones of Central Asia," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 23.
    3. K. F. Fung & Y. F. Huang & C. H. Koo, 2020. "Assessing drought conditions through temporal pattern, spatial characteristic and operational accuracy indicated by SPI and SPEI: case analysis for Peninsular Malaysia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2071-2101, September.
    4. J. N. Okpara & K. O. Ogunjobi & E. A. Adefisan, 2022. "Developing objective dry spell and drought triggers for drought monitoring in the Niger Basin of West Africa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(3), pages 2465-2492, July.
    5. Gift Nxumalo & Bashar Bashir & Karam Alsafadi & Hussein Bachir & Endre Harsányi & Sana Arshad & Safwan Mohammed, 2022. "Meteorological Drought Variability and Its Impact on Wheat Yields across South Africa," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(24), pages 1-22, December.

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