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A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura, Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Non Okumura

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Sebastiaan N. Jonkman

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Miguel Esteban

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Bas Hofland

    (Delft University of Technology)

  • Tomoya Shibayama

    (Waseda University)

Abstract

This paper presents a methodology for tsunami risk assessment, which was applied to a case study in Kamakura, Japan. This methodology was developed in order to evaluate the effectiveness of a risk-reducing system against such hazards, also aiming to demonstrate that a risk assessment is possible for these episodic events. The tsunami risk assessment follows these general steps: (1) determination of the probability of flooding, (2) calculation of flood scenarios, (3) assessment of the consequences and (4) integration into a risk number or graph. The probability of flooding was approximated based on the data provided by local institutes, and the flood scenarios were modeled in 1D using the Simulating WAves till SHore model. Results showed that a tsunami in Kamakura can result in thousands of casualties. Interventions such as improvements in evacuation systems, which would directly reduce the number of casualties, would have a large influence in risk reduction. Although this method has its limits and constraints, it illustrates the value it can add to existing tsunami risk management in Japan.

Suggested Citation

  • Non Okumura & Sebastiaan N. Jonkman & Miguel Esteban & Bas Hofland & Tomoya Shibayama, 2017. "A method for tsunami risk assessment: a case study for Kamakura, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1451-1472, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:88:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-017-2928-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2928-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Aimilia Pistrika & Sebastiaan Jonkman, 2010. "Damage to residential buildings due to flooding of New Orleans after hurricane Katrina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 54(2), pages 413-434, August.
    2. Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Ioan Nistor & Hiroshi Takagi & Nguyen Thao & Ryo Matsumaru & Takahito Mikami & Rafael Aranguiz & Ravindra Jayaratne & Koichiro Ohira, 2013. "Classification of Tsunami and Evacuation Areas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 365-386, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Tomoyuki Takabatake & Tomoya Shibayama & Miguel Esteban & Hidenori Ishii, 2018. "Advanced casualty estimation based on tsunami evacuation intended behavior: case study at Yuigahama Beach, Kamakura, Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(3), pages 1763-1788, July.

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