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Performance evaluation of an operational lightning forecasting system in Europe

Author

Listed:
  • T. M. Giannaros

    (National Observatory of Athens)

  • K. Lagouvardos

    (National Observatory of Athens)

  • V. Kotroni

    (National Observatory of Athens)

Abstract

This study presents the evaluation of 1 year of operational lightning forecasts provided for Europe, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with a cloud-top height-based lightning parameterization scheme. Three different convective parameterization schemes were employed for parameterizing sub-grid cloud-top heights and consequently driving the lightning scheme. Triggering of the lightning scheme was controlled by means of a model-resolved microphysics-based masking filter, while the formulation for deriving lightning flash rates was also modified, assuming a single “marine” equation instead of the original equations discriminating between continental and marine lightning. Gridded lightning observations were used for evaluating model performance on a dichotomous decision basis. Analysis showed that the lightning scheme is sensitive to the parameterization of convection. In particular, the Kain–Fritsch convective scheme was found to outperform the Grell–Devenyi and Grell–Freitas schemes, showing a statistically significant better performance with respect to lightning prediction. This was most evident during the warm season, while smaller differences among the schemes were recorded during the cold season. Further, for all examined convective schemes, it was found that the application of the masking filter is desirable for improving model performance in terms of lightning forecasting. Last, the reported results revealed that the refinement of the formulation of the lightning parameterization scheme, adhering to a “global” marine equation instead of distinguishing between land and sea lightning, may be necessary in order to obtain reliable lightning forecasts.

Suggested Citation

  • T. M. Giannaros & K. Lagouvardos & V. Kotroni, 2017. "Performance evaluation of an operational lightning forecasting system in Europe," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 1-18, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:85:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-016-2555-y
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-016-2555-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brian Mills & Dan Unrau & Carla Parkinson & Brenda Jones & Jennifer Yessis & Kelsey Spring & Laurel Pentelow, 2008. "Assessment of lightning-related fatality and injury risk in Canada," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 47(2), pages 157-183, November.
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    7. Wenliang Liu & Shixin Wang & Yi Zhou & Litao Wang & Jinfeng Zhu & Futao Wang, 2016. "Lightning-caused forest fire risk rating assessment based on case-based reasoning: a case study in DaXingAn Mountains of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(1), pages 347-363, March.
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