IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v116y2023i3d10.1007_s11069-022-05802-0.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Probabilistic urban cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires

Author

Listed:
  • Tomoaki Nishino

    (Kyoto University)

Abstract

A probabilistic methodology is presented for assessing cascading multi-hazard risk for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires at a regional scale. The proposed methodology focuses on direct economic losses to buildings caused by the combined effect of ground shaking and post-earthquake fires and evaluates the exceedance probability of the regional shaking–fire losses in a predefined future time period by comprehensively considering the effects of various uncertain factors on the losses via Monte Carlo simulations. Probabilistic seismic risk assessments are extended by integrating post-earthquake fire models with seismic activity models, ground motion prediction equations, and seismic fragility functions. The fire models include post-earthquake ignition models, a weather model, a physics-based urban fire spread model, and a fire brigade response model. This integrated modeling enables the incorporation of the following uncertain factors with causal relationships into the assessments: earthquake occurrence, ground motion intensity distribution, damage to buildings resulting from ground shaking, post-earthquake ignition occurrence and occupant firefighting, weather condition, fire brigade response time including time to detection, and damage to buildings resulting from post-earthquake urban fire spread. To demonstrate the methodology, a realistic case study is conducted for a historical urban area with closely spaced wooden buildings in Kyoto, Japan, focusing on possible large earthquakes along major active faults. Contrary to conventional single-hazard approaches, the results highlight the impact of multi-hazard consideration on risk assessments. This indicates that the methodology can be a useful tool for more appropriately understanding earthquake risk and promoting risk-informed decision-making in urban communities for risk reduction.

Suggested Citation

  • Tomoaki Nishino, 2023. "Probabilistic urban cascading multi-hazard risk assessment methodology for ground shaking and post-earthquake fires," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3165-3200, April.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05802-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05802-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s11069-022-05802-0
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-022-05802-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Jacopo Selva, 2013. "Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 701-722, June.
    2. Warner Marzocchi & Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal & Paolo Gasparini & Maria Mastellone & Angela Di Ruocco, 2012. "Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 551-573, June.
    3. Babak Omidvar & Hamid Karimi Kivi, 2016. "Multi-hazard failure probability analysis of gas pipelines for earthquake shaking, ground failure and fire following earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 82(1), pages 703-720, May.
    4. Maxwell Coar & Amir Sarreshtehdari & Maria Garlock & Negar Elhami Khorasani, 2021. "Methodology and challenges of fire following earthquake analysis: an urban community study considering water and transportation networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(1), pages 1-31, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Nishino, Tomoaki & Miyashita, Takuya & Mori, Nobuhito, 2024. "Methodology for probabilistic tsunami-triggered oil spill fire hazard assessment based on Natech cascading disaster modeling," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 242(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Qiao, Wanguan, 2021. "Analysis and measurement of multifactor risk in underground coal mine accidents based on coupling theory," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Zheng He & Negar Elhami Khorasani, 2022. "Identification and hierarchical structure of cause factors for fire following earthquake using data mining and interpretive structural modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 947-976, May.
    3. Johnson, Caroline A. & Flage, Roger & Guikema, Seth D., 2021. "Feasibility study of PRA for critical infrastructure risk analysis," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 212(C).
    4. Dylan Sanderson & Sabarethinam Kameshwar & Nathanael Rosenheim & Daniel Cox, 2021. "Deaggregation of multi-hazard damages, losses, risks, and connectivity: an application to the joint seismic-tsunami hazard at Seaside, Oregon," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 109(2), pages 1821-1847, November.
    5. Kurdi, Heba & Almulifi, Asma & Al-Megren, Shiroq & Youcef-Toumi, Kamal, 2021. "A balanced evacuation algorithm for facilities with multiple exits," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 289(1), pages 285-296.
    6. Christopher T. Emrich & Yao Zhou & Sanam K. Aksha & Herbert E. Longenecker, 2022. "Creating a Nationwide Composite Hazard Index Using Empirically Based Threat Assessment Approaches Applied to Open Geospatial Data," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-25, February.
    7. Ellena Marta & Ricciardi Guglielmo & Barbato Giuliana & Buffa Alessandra & Villani Veronica & Mercogliano Paola, 2020. "Past and future hydrogeological risk assessment under climate change conditions over urban settlements and infrastructure systems: the case of a sub-regional area of Piedmont, Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 102(1), pages 275-305, May.
    8. Pitilakis, Kyriazis & Argyroudis, Sotiris & Fotopoulou, Stavroula & Karafagka, Stella & Kakderi, Kalliopi & Selva, Jacopo, 2019. "Application of stress test concepts for port infrastructures against natural hazards. The case of Thessaloniki port in Greece," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 184(C), pages 240-257.
    9. Jacopo Selva, 2013. "Long-term multi-risk assessment: statistical treatment of interaction among risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 701-722, June.
    10. Mieko Kumasaki & Malcolm King & Mitsuru Arai & Lili Yang, 2016. "Anatomy of cascading natural disasters in Japan: main modes and linkages," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(3), pages 1425-1441, February.
    11. Zuo Qiting & Wang Xin & Luo Zengliang & Han Chunhui, 2019. "Integrated assessment of urban safety of the cities in the mainland of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 96(3), pages 1311-1334, April.
    12. Adriana Galderisi & Giada Limongi, 2021. "A Comprehensive Assessment of Exposure and Vulnerabilities in Multi-Hazard Urban Environments: A Key Tool for Risk-Informed Planning Strategies," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-19, August.
    13. Liu, Zengkai & Ma, Qiang & Cai, Baoping & Shi, Xuewei & Zheng, Chao & Liu, Yonghong, 2022. "Risk coupling analysis of subsea blowout accidents based on dynamic Bayesian network and NK model," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 218(PA).
    14. Selene Perazzini & Giorgio Stefano Gnecco & Fabio Pammolli, 2020. "A Public-Private Insurance Model for Natural Risk Management: an Application to Seismic and Flood Risks on Residential Buildings in Italy," Papers 2006.05840, arXiv.org.
    15. Shaohong Wu & Jing Jin & Tao Pan, 2015. "Empirical seismic vulnerability curve for mortality: case study of China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 77(2), pages 645-662, June.
    16. Fjóla Sigtryggsdóttir & Jónas Snæbjörnsson & Lars Grande & Ragnar Sigbjörnsson, 2015. "Methodology for geohazard assessment for hydropower projects," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(2), pages 1299-1331, November.
    17. Alessandro Pagano & Raffaele Giordano & Ivan Portoghese & Umberto Fratino & Michele Vurro, 2014. "A Bayesian vulnerability assessment tool for drinking water mains under extreme events," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(3), pages 2193-2227, December.
    18. Wei, Yian & Cheng, Yao & Liao, Haitao, 2024. "Optimal resilience-based restoration of a system subject to recurrent dependent hazards," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
    19. Valentina Gallina & Silvia Torresan & Alex Zabeo & Andrea Critto & Thomas Glade & Antonio Marcomini, 2020. "A Multi-Risk Methodology for the Assessment of Climate Change Impacts in Coastal Zones," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(9), pages 1-28, May.
    20. Ruiz-Tagle, Andres & Lewis, Austin D. & Schell, Colin A. & Lever, Ernest & Groth, Katrina M., 2022. "BaNTERA: A Bayesian Network for Third-Party Excavation Risk Assessment," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 223(C).

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:116:y:2023:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05802-0. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.