IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v80y2016i1p425-444.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Application of a synthetic cyclone method for assessment of tropical cyclone storm tides in Samoa

Author

Listed:
  • Kathleen McInnes
  • Ron Hoeke
  • Kevin Walsh
  • Julian O’Grady
  • Graeme Hubbert

Abstract

Tropical cyclone-induced storm surges cause damaging impacts in coastal regions. The present study uses a stochastic cyclone modelling approach to evaluate the likelihoods of storm tides, the combination of storm surges and astronomical tides, for Samoa. Cyclones that occurred in the vicinity of Samoa from 1969 to 2009 are used to build a stochastic tropical cyclone data set, and an analytic cyclone model and hydrodynamic model are used to model storm tides under average, La Niña and El Niño cyclone and sea level conditions for present climate conditions as well as cyclone and sea level conditions relevant for 2055, and storm tide return periods are estimated. We find that extreme storm tides exhibit relatively modest variation around the coastline of Samoa owing to the uniform width of the shelf surrounding the coastlines of two main islands of Savai’i and Upolu. The frequency of cyclones and hence storm tides during El Niño conditions is similar to the frequency for all seasons, but is considerably lower in La Niña conditions. For the future, tropical cyclones are assumed to undergo decreased frequency and increased intensity. This is found to lower the storm tide height for return periods >100 years and increase it for return periods greater than about 200 years. Sea level rise is shown to have a larger influence on storm tides than future changes to tropical cyclones. Considering the aggregated probabilities of storm tides occurring at the national scale, we find that the likelihood of a storm tide occurring that locally exceeds a 1-in-100-year level (i.e. an event with a 1 % annual exceedance probability) has a 6 % probability of occurring somewhere along the entire coastline of Samoa. Such information may be useful for those involved in coastal management and disaster response for which there may be a need to consider the overall likelihood that a nation may have to respond to such a disaster. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2016

Suggested Citation

  • Kathleen McInnes & Ron Hoeke & Kevin Walsh & Julian O’Grady & Graeme Hubbert, 2016. "Application of a synthetic cyclone method for assessment of tropical cyclone storm tides in Samoa," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 80(1), pages 425-444, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:1:p:425-444
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1975-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-015-1975-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-015-1975-4?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Mcinnes & K. Walsh & G. Hubbert & T. Beer, 2003. "Impact of Sea-level Rise and Storm Surges on a Coastal Community," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 30(2), pages 187-207, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yashna Devi Beeharry & Girish Bekaroo & Chandradeo Bokhoree & Michael Robert Phillips, 2022. "Impacts of sea-level rise on coastal zones of Mauritius: insights following calculation of a coastal vulnerability index," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(1), pages 27-55, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jun Wang & Zhenlou Chen & Shiyuan Xu & Beibei Hu, 2013. "Medium-scale natural disaster risk scenario analysis: a case study of Pingyang County, Wenzhou, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1205-1220, March.
    2. Yumei Ding & Hao Wei, 2017. "Modeling the impact of land reclamation on storm surges in Bohai Sea, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 85(1), pages 559-573, January.
    3. Kevin Walsh & Christopher J. White & Kathleen McInnes & John Holmes & Sandra Schuster & Harald Richter & Jason P. Evans & Alejandro Luca & Robert A. Warren, 2016. "Natural hazards in Australia: storms, wind and hail," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 139(1), pages 55-67, November.
    4. Tengjiao Guo & Guosheng Li, 2020. "Study on methods to identify the impact factors of economic losses due to typhoon storm surge based on confirmatory factor analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 515-534, January.
    5. Thomas Prime & Jennifer M Brown & Andrew J Plater, 2015. "Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(2), pages 1-28, February.
    6. Shama E. Haque, 2023. "The Effects of Climate Variability on Florida’s Major Water Resources," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(14), pages 1-28, July.
    7. Charls Antony & Sabique Langodan & Hari Prasad Dasari & Omar Knio & Ibrahim Hoteit, 2021. "Extreme water levels along the central Red Sea coast of Saudi Arabia: processes and frequency analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 105(2), pages 1797-1814, January.
    8. Jun Wang & Wei Gao & Shiyuan Xu & Lizhong Yu, 2012. "Evaluation of the combined risk of sea level rise, land subsidence, and storm surges on the coastal areas of Shanghai, China," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 115(3), pages 537-558, December.
    9. Andre Zerger & Stephen Wealands, 2004. "Beyond Modelling: Linking Models with GIS for Flood Risk Management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 33(2), pages 191-208, October.
    10. Leo Dobes & Gabriela Scheufele & Jeff Bennett, 2015. "Post-cyclone emergency services: a cost–benefit analysis for Cairns, Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 869-886, January.
    11. K. McInnes & I. Macadam & G. Hubbert & J. O’Grady, 2009. "A modelling approach for estimating the frequency of sea level extremes and the impact of climate change in southeast Australia," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 51(1), pages 115-137, October.
    12. Ming Li & Fan Zhang & Samuel Barnes & Xiaohong Wang, 2020. "Assessing storm surge impacts on coastal inundation due to climate change: case studies of Baltimore and Dorchester County in Maryland," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 103(2), pages 2561-2588, September.
    13. Keqi Zhang & Yuepeng Li & Huiqing Liu & Hongzhou Xu & Jian Shen, 2013. "Comparison of three methods for estimating the sea level rise effect on storm surge flooding," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 118(2), pages 487-500, May.
    14. Lisa Kleinosky & Brent Yarnal & Ann Fisher, 2007. "Vulnerability of Hampton Roads, Virginia to Storm-Surge Flooding and Sea-Level Rise," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 40(1), pages 43-70, January.
    15. Bin Pei & Weichiang Pang & Firat Testik & Nadarajah Ravichandran & Fangqian Liu, 2014. "Mapping joint hurricane wind and surge hazards for Charleston, South Carolina," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 375-403, November.
    16. Sang Oh & Il-Ju Moon, 2013. "Typhoon and storm surge intensity changes in a warming climate around the Korean Peninsula," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(3), pages 1405-1429, April.
    17. Geraldine Li, 2009. "Tropical cyclone risk perceptions in Darwin, Australia: a comparison of different residential groups," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 48(3), pages 365-382, March.
    18. Kuo Li & Guo Li, 2013. "Risk assessment on storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 68(2), pages 1129-1139, September.
    19. Susmita Datta Peu & Arnob Das & Md. Sanowar Hossain & Md. Abdul Mannan Akanda & Md. Muzaffer Hosen Akanda & Mahbubur Rahman & Md. Naim Miah & Barun K. Das & Abu Reza Md. Towfiqul Islam & Mostafa M. Sa, 2023. "A Comprehensive Review on Recent Advancements in Absorption-Based Post Combustion Carbon Capture Technologies to Obtain a Sustainable Energy Sector with Clean Environment," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(7), pages 1-33, March.
    20. Yan Fang & Jie Yin & Bihu Wu, 2016. "Flooding risk assessment of coastal tourist attractions affected by sea level rise and storm surge: a case study in Zhejiang Province, China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 611-624, October.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:80:y:2016:i:1:p:425-444. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.