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Changing properties of precipitation extremes in the urban areas, Yangtze River Delta, China, during 1957–2013

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  • Longfei Han
  • Youpeng Xu
  • Guangbo Pan
  • Xiaojun Deng
  • Chunsheng Hu
  • Hongliang Xu
  • Hongyi Shi

Abstract

The Yangtze River Delta (YRD) is one of largest river deltas and metropolitan areas in the world with strong human interference, so it is vulnerable to extreme weather events. Based on daily precipitation dataset of 16 rain gauges in Yangtze River Delta and Mann–Kendall trend detection techniques, the trend in annual and seasonal precipitation extremes has been investigated in the period 1957–2013. Possible links between changes in extreme precipitation and monsoon indices have also been explored. The results show that: (1) the increasing trends of consecutive wet days, maximum daily precipitation, maximum 5-day precipitation and maximum precipitation amount in the past 57 years in YRD can be detected. Much attention should be paid to higher risk of flash flood in these areas, especially in big cities of Shanghai, Nanjing, Hangzhou and Ningbo. (2) Both precipitation days and amount of heavy events (defined as over 90th, 95th and 99th) exhibit overwhelming upward tendency in summer and winter throughout YRD. The summer is to meet with heavier precipitation events as result of larger increasing magnitude in heavy rain days and amounts in the past 57 years. So, high importance should be placed on the relief for flood in summer in the large cites. (3) There is an abrupt change point for extreme precipitation events, and increased annual total precipitation has impact on the upward tendency of heavy rainfall events in YRD on great scale. In addition, the significant correlations between indices (P90, P95, R90 and R95) and monsoon indices (East Asian Summer Monsoon Index and South Asia Summer Monsoon Index) indicate that extreme precipitation events are related to the EASMI and SASMI. Therefore, these properties of precipitation extremes are of great significance to the control of natural hazards in YRD with high degree of human activities and understanding the impact of climate change on hydrologic processes. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Longfei Han & Youpeng Xu & Guangbo Pan & Xiaojun Deng & Chunsheng Hu & Hongliang Xu & Hongyi Shi, 2015. "Changing properties of precipitation extremes in the urban areas, Yangtze River Delta, China, during 1957–2013," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 79(1), pages 437-454, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:79:y:2015:i:1:p:437-454
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-015-1850-3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Kenneth Kunkel, 2003. "North American Trends in Extreme Precipitation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(2), pages 291-305, June.
    2. P. C. D. Milly & R. T. Wetherald & K. A. Dunne & T. L. Delworth, 2002. "Increasing risk of great floods in a changing climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 415(6871), pages 514-517, January.
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    3. Yi Ge & Wen Dou & Jianping Dai, 2017. "A New Approach to Identify Social Vulnerability to Climate Change in the Yangtze River Delta," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(12), pages 1-19, December.
    4. Wenlin Yuan & Xinyu Tu & Chengguo Su & Meiqi Liu & Denghua Yan & Zening Wu, 2021. "Research on the Critical Rainfall of Flash Floods in Small Watersheds Based on the Design of Characteristic Rainfall Patterns," Water Resources Management: An International Journal, Published for the European Water Resources Association (EWRA), Springer;European Water Resources Association (EWRA), vol. 35(10), pages 3297-3319, August.
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