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Risk assessment of maize drought hazard in the middle region of farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China

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  • Zhiqiang Wang
  • Jingyi Jiang
  • Yongfeng Liao
  • Lan Deng

Abstract

Global warming has drawn great attention in recent years, and the resultant extreme drought events have seriously influenced food security. Drought hazard has become a major stress factor for food production in China. The present study aimed to assess the drought hazard risk of maize in middle region of farming-pastoral ecotone of Northern China using spatial maize drought hazard intensity index. The drought hazard intensity index model was set up based on the output variable water stress of environmental policy-integrated climate model and yield loss contribution rate α of water stress in each growth stage. The yield loss contribution rate α is calculated based on the relationship between the water deficit in different stages and the yield loss. Added with the spatial data in time series, results are used for risk assessment. It shows that the tendency of maize drought hazard intensity index was increasing from 1966 to 2011 and was becoming significant after 1996. The volatility is becoming stronger, especially in central basin and northwestern plateau of the study area. The extreme drought events were more frequent. The degree of maize drought was aggravated, and scope of influence was extended after 1999. And the risk of drought hazard is relatively high in the study area, especially in the central basin. In conclusion, this paper presents an effective way to analyze maize drought hazard risk. For the middle region of farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China, the seriously increasing maize drought hazard is demonstrated by the temporal and spatial analyses and the probability distribution of maize drought hazard intensity index, which presents its sensitivity to climate change and its representativeness to the study of agricultural drought hazard. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Zhiqiang Wang & Jingyi Jiang & Yongfeng Liao & Lan Deng, 2015. "Risk assessment of maize drought hazard in the middle region of farming-pastoral ecotone in Northern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(3), pages 1515-1534, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:76:y:2015:i:3:p:1515-1534
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1525-5
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    Cited by:

    1. Shi, Wenjiao & Liu, Yiting & Shi, Xiaoli, 2018. "Contributions of climate change to the boundary shifts in the farming-pastoral ecotone in northern China since 1970," Agricultural Systems, Elsevier, vol. 161(C), pages 16-27.
    2. Shuting Bai & Jiuchun Yang & Yubo Zhang & Fengqin Yan & Lingxue Yu & Shuwen Zhang, 2022. "Evaluating Ecosystem Services and Trade-Offs Based on Land-Use Simulation: A Case Study in the Farming–Pastoral Ecotone of Northern China," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-17, July.
    3. Wang, Zhiqiang & Ye, Li & Jiang, Jingyi & Fan, Yida & Zhang, Xiaoran, 2022. "Review of application of EPIC crop growth model," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 467(C).
    4. Qi Zhang & Jiquan Zhang, 2016. "Drought hazard assessment in typical corn cultivated areas of China at present and potential climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1323-1331, March.
    5. Yuhe Ji & Guangsheng Zhou & Qijin He & Lixia Wang, 2018. "The Effect of Climate Change on Spring Maize ( Zea mays L.) Suitability across China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-10, October.
    6. Qi Zhang & Jiquan Zhang, 2016. "Drought hazard assessment in typical corn cultivated areas of China at present and potential climate change," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 81(2), pages 1323-1331, March.

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