IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/nathaz/v44y2008i2p253-265.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach

Author

Listed:
  • Hirokazu Tatano
  • Satoshi Tsuchiya

Abstract

This paper presents a framework for assessing the economic impact of disruption in transportation that can relate the physical damage to transportation networks to economic losses. A spatial computable general equilibrium (SCGE) model is formulated and then integrated with a transportation model that can estimate the traffic volumes of freight and passengers. Economic equilibrium under a disruption in the transportation network is computed subject to the condition that the adjustment of labor and capital inputs is restricted; the model reflects slow adjustment of these linked to the state of recovery. As a case study, the model reviews the large Niigata-Chuetsu earthquake of 2004. Considering the damage to the transportation infrastructure, the model indicates the extent of the economic losses arising from the earthquake distributed over regions as a consequence of the intra- and interregional trade in a regional economy. The results show that 20% of the indirect losses occur in the Niigata region directly affected by the earthquake, whereas 40% of the total losses are experienced in the Kanto region and non-negligible losses reach rather remote zones of the country such as Okinawa. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2008

Suggested Citation

  • Hirokazu Tatano & Satoshi Tsuchiya, 2008. "A framework for economic loss estimation due to seismic transportation network disruption: a spatial computable general equilibrium approach," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 44(2), pages 253-265, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:44:y:2008:i:2:p:253-265
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-007-9151-0
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s11069-007-9151-0
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s11069-007-9151-0?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Adam Rose & Gauri-Shankar Guha, 2004. "Computable General Equilibrium Modeling of Electric Utility Lifeline Losses from Earthquakes," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Stephanie E. Chang (ed.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, chapter 7, pages 119-141, Springer.
    2. Adam Rose & Shu‐Yi Liao, 2005. "Modeling Regional Economic Resilience to Disasters: A Computable General Equilibrium Analysis of Water Service Disruptions," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 45(1), pages 75-112, February.
    3. Cadiou, Loı̈c & Dées, Stéphane & Laffargue, Jean-Pierre, 2003. "A computational general equilibrium model with vintage capital," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 1961-1991.
    4. Jungyul Sohn & Geoffrey J. D. Hewings & Tschangho John Kim & Jong Sung Lee & Sung-Gheel Jang, 2004. "Analysis of Economic Impacts of an Earthquake on Transportation Network," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Stephanie E. Chang (ed.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, chapter 12, pages 233-256, Springer.
    5. Loïc Cadiou & Stéphane Dées & Jean-Pierre Laffargue, 2000. "A computable General Equilibrium Model with Vintage Capital," Working Papers 2000-20, CEPII research center.
    6. Adam Rose, 2004. "Economic Principles, Issues, and Research Priorities in Hazard Loss Estimation," Advances in Spatial Science, in: Yasuhide Okuyama & Stephanie E. Chang (ed.), Modeling Spatial and Economic Impacts of Disasters, chapter 2, pages 13-36, Springer.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Zhengtao Zhang & Ning Li & Peng Cui & Hong Xu & Yuan Liu & Xi Chen & Jieling Feng, 2019. "How to Integrate Labor Disruption into an Economic Impact Evaluation Model for Postdisaster Recovery Periods," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(11), pages 2443-2456, November.
    2. Alireza Mostafizi & Haizhong Wang & Dan Cox & Lori A. Cramer & Shangjia Dong, 2017. "Agent-based tsunami evacuation modeling of unplanned network disruptions for evidence-driven resource allocation and retrofitting strategies," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1347-1372, September.
    3. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    4. Yuchen Hu & Harvey Cutler & Yihua Mao, 2023. "Economic Loss Assessment for Losses Due to Earthquake under an Integrated Building, Lifeline, and Transportation Nexus: A Spatial Computable General Equilibrium Approach for Shelby County, TN," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-24, May.
    5. Man Li & Tao Ye & Peijun Shi & Jian Fang, 2015. "Impacts of the global economic crisis and Tohoku earthquake on Sino–Japan trade: a comparative perspective," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(1), pages 541-556, January.
    6. Matteo Coronese & Davide Luzzati, 2022. "Economic impacts of natural hazards and complexity science: a critical review," LEM Papers Series 2022/13, Laboratory of Economics and Management (LEM), Sant'Anna School of Advanced Studies, Pisa, Italy.
    7. Toshio Fujimi & Hirokazu Tatano, 2012. "Estimation of indirect economic loss caused by house destruction in a natural disaster," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(3), pages 1367-1388, April.
    8. Xinyu Jiang & Nobuhito Mori & Hirokazu Tatano & Lijiao Yang & Yoko Shibutani, 2016. "Estimation of property loss and business interruption loss caused by storm surge inundation due to climate change: a case of Typhoon Vera revisit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 35-49, November.
    9. Robson, Edward N. & Wijayaratna, Kasun P. & Dixit, Vinayak V., 2018. "A review of computable general equilibrium models for transport and their applications in appraisal," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 31-53.
    10. Aijun Hu & Wei Xie & Ning Li & Xuanhua Xu & Zhonghui Ji & Jidong Wu, 2014. "Analyzing regional economic impact and resilience: a case study on electricity outages caused by the 2008 snowstorms in southern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(2), pages 1019-1030, January.
    11. Jenelius, Erik & Mattsson, Lars-Göran, 2012. "Road network vulnerability analysis of area-covering disruptions: A grid-based approach with case study," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 46(5), pages 746-760.
    12. Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano, 2018. "Applicability of a spatial computable general equilibrium model to assess the short-term economic impact of natural disasters," Economic Systems Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 289-312, July.
    13. Yang, Zhuyu & Barroca, Bruno & Laffréchine, Katia & Weppe, Alexandre & Bony-Dandrieux, Aurélia & Daclin, Nicolas, 2023. "A multi-criteria framework for critical infrastructure systems resilience," International Journal of Critical Infrastructure Protection, Elsevier, vol. 42(C).
    14. Jing-Li Fan & Qiao-Mei Liang & Xiao-Jie Liang & Hirokazu Tatano & Yoshio Kajitani & Yi-Ming Wei, 2014. "National vulnerability to extreme climatic events: the cases of electricity disruption in China and Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 1937-1956, April.
    15. Liu, Huan & Tatano, Hirokazu & Pflug, Georg & Hochrainer-Stigler, Stefan, 2021. "Post-disaster recovery in industrial sectors: A Markov process analysis of multiple lifeline disruptions," Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Elsevier, vol. 206(C).
    16. Kilgarriff, Paul & McDermott, T.K.J. & Vega, Amaya & Morrissey , Karyn & O’Donoghue, Cathal, 2018. "Flooding disruption and the impact on the spatial distribution of commuter’s income," Working Papers 309608, National University of Ireland, Galway, Socio-Economic Marine Research Unit.
    17. Yin, Kai & Wu, Jianjun & Wang, Weiping & Lee, Der-Horng & Wei, Yun, 2023. "An integrated resilience assessment model of urban transportation network: A case study of 40 cities in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 173(C).
    18. Wei Xie & Ning Li & Chunhua Li & Ji-dong Wu & Aijun Hu & Xiaolin Hao, 2014. "Quantifying cascading effects triggered by disrupted transportation due to the Great 2008 Chinese Ice Storm: implications for disaster risk management," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 70(1), pages 337-352, January.
    19. Guizhi Wang & Xia Li & Xianhua Wu & Jun Yu, 2015. "The rainstorm comprehensive economic loss assessment based on CGE model: using a July heavy rainstorm in Beijing as an example," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 76(2), pages 839-854, March.
    20. Balakrishnan, Srijith & Lim, Taehoon & Zhang, Zhanmin, 2022. "A methodology for evaluating the economic risks of hurricane-related disruptions to port operations," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 162(C), pages 58-79.
    21. Lijiao Yang & Yoshio Kajitani & Hirokazu Tatano & Xinyu Jiang, 2016. "A methodology for estimating business interruption loss caused by flood disasters: insights from business surveys after Tokai Heavy Rain in Japan," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 411-430, November.
    22. Lu, Qing-Chang & Xu, Peng-Cheng & Zhang, Jingxiao, 2021. "Infrastructure-based transportation network vulnerability modeling and analysis," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 584(C).
    23. Yan Shi & Shumiao Jin & Klaus Seeland, 2015. "Modeling business interruption impacts due to disrupted highway network of Shifang by the Wenchuan earthquake," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 75(2), pages 1731-1745, January.
    24. Brad Hartman & Harvey Cutler & Martin Shields & Dave Turner, 2021. "The economic effects of improved precipitation forecasts in the United States due to better commuting decisions," Growth and Change, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 52(4), pages 2149-2171, December.
    25. Hiroyuki Shibusawa & Daichi Matsushima, 2022. "Assessing the economic impact of tsunami and nuclear power plant disasters in Shizuoka, Japan: a dynamic inter-regional input–output (IRIO) approach," Asia-Pacific Journal of Regional Science, Springer, vol. 6(1), pages 307-333, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Iman Rahimi Aloughareh & Mohsen Ghafory Ashtiany & Kiarash Nasserasadi, 2016. "An Integrated Methodology For Regional Macroeconomic Loss Estimation Of Earthquake: A Case Study Of Tehran," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(04), pages 1-24, September.
    2. Suman K SHARMA, 2010. "Socio-Economic Aspects of Disaster’s Impact: An Assessment of Databases and Methodologies," Economic Growth Centre Working Paper Series 1001, Nanyang Technological University, School of Social Sciences, Economic Growth Centre.
    3. Masato Yamazaki & Atsushi Koike & Yoshinori Sone, 2018. "A Heuristic Approach to the Estimation of Key Parameters for a Monthly, Recursive, Dynamic CGE Model," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 283-301, October.
    4. Pradeep V. Mandapaka & Edmond Y. M. Lo, 2023. "Assessing Shock Propagation and Cascading Uncertainties Using the Input–Output Framework: Analysis of an Oil Refinery Accident in Singapore," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-24, January.
    5. Wenzel, Lars & Wolf, André, 2013. "Protection against major catastrophes: An economic perspective," HWWI Research Papers 137, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    6. Haddad Eduardo Amaral & Okuyama Yasuhide, 2016. "Spatial Propagation of the Economic Impacts of Bombing: The Case of the 2006 War in Lebanon," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 12(3), pages 225-256, December.
    7. Trond G. Husby & Elco E. Koks, 2017. "Household migration in disaster impact analysis: incorporating behavioural responses to risk," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 87(1), pages 287-305, May.
    8. Aaron B. Gertz & James B. Davies & Samantha L. Black, 2019. "A CGE Framework for Modeling the Economics of Flooding and Recovery in a Major Urban Area," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 39(6), pages 1314-1341, June.
    9. Naqvi, Asjad, 2017. "Deep Impact: Geo-Simulations as a Policy Toolkit for Natural Disasters," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 395-418.
    10. Qin Fan & Meri Davlasheridze, 2019. "Economic Impacts Of Migration And Brain Drain After Major Catastrophe: The Case Of Hurricane Katrina," Climate Change Economics (CCE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 10(01), pages 1-21, February.
    11. Stéphane Hallegatte, 2014. "Modeling the Role of Inventories and Heterogeneity in the Assessment of the Economic Costs of Natural Disasters," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 34(1), pages 152-167, January.
    12. Jahn, Malte, 2013. "Economics of extreme weather events in cities: Terminology and regional impact models," HWWI Research Papers 143, Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI).
    13. Weijiang Li & Jiahong Wen & Bo Xu & Xiande Li & Shiqiang Du, 2018. "Integrated Assessment of Economic Losses in Manufacturing Industry in Shanghai Metropolitan Area Under an Extreme Storm Flood Scenario," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-19, December.
    14. Baghersad, Milad & Zobel, Christopher W., 2015. "Economic impact of production bottlenecks caused by disasters impacting interdependent industry sectors," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 168(C), pages 71-80.
    15. Elena Ianchovichina & Maros Ivanic, 2016. "Economic Effects of the Syrian War and the Spread of the Islamic State on the Levant," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 39(10), pages 1584-1627, October.
    16. Hallegatte, Stephane, 2012. "Modeling the roles of heterogeneity, substitution, and inventories in the assessment of natural disaster economic costs," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6047, The World Bank.
    17. Joost R. Santos, 2006. "Inoperability input‐output modeling of disruptions to interdependent economic systems," Systems Engineering, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 9(1), pages 20-34, March.
    18. Lorenzo Carrera & Gabriele Standardi & Francesco Bosello & Jaroslav Mysiak, 2014. "Assessing Direct and Indirect Economic Impacts of a Flood Event Through the Integration of Spatial and Computable General Equilibrium Modelling," Working Papers 2014.82, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei.
    19. Balbi Stefano & Giupponi Carlo & Olschewski Roland & Mojtahed Vahid, 2015. "The Total Cost of Water-Related Disasters," Review of Economics, De Gruyter, vol. 66(2), pages 225-252, August.
    20. Higashi, Akiko, 2016. "Analysis of the impact of the decline in crude oil imports on the Japanese economy," Conference papers 332701, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:44:y:2008:i:2:p:253-265. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.