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A prediction model for debris flows triggered by a runoff-induced mechanism

Author

Listed:
  • Bin Yu
  • Yuan Zhu
  • Tao Wang
  • Yuanjing Chen
  • Yunbo Zhu
  • Yongbo Tie
  • Ke Lu

Abstract

Many debris flows were triggered within and also outside the Dayi area of the Guizhou Province, China, during a rainstorm in 2011. High-intensity short-duration rainfall was the main triggering factor for these gully-type debris flows which are probably triggered by a runoff-induced mechanism. A revised prediction model was introduced for this kind of gully-type debris flows with factors related to topography, geology, and hydrology (rainfall) and applied to the Wangmo River catchment. Regarding the geological factor, the “soft lithology” and “loose sediments” in the channel were added to the list of the average firmness coefficient for the lithology. Also, the chemical weathering was taken into account for the revised geological factor. Concerning the hydrological factor, a coefficient of variation of rainfall was introduced for the normalization of the rainfall factor. The prediction model for debris flows proposed in this paper delivered three classes of the probability of debris flow occurrence. The model was successfully validated in debris flow gullies with the same initiation mechanism in other areas of southwest China. The generic character of the model is explained by the fact that its factors are partly based on the initiation mechanisms and not only on the statistical analyses of a unique variety of local factors. The research provides a new way to predict the occurrence of debris flows initiated by a runoff-induced mechanism. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Bin Yu & Yuan Zhu & Tao Wang & Yuanjing Chen & Yunbo Zhu & Yongbo Tie & Ke Lu, 2014. "A prediction model for debris flows triggered by a runoff-induced mechanism," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 74(2), pages 1141-1161, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:74:y:2014:i:2:p:1141-1161
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-014-1234-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Tung-Chiung Chang, 2007. "Risk degree of debris flow applying neural networks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(1), pages 209-224, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen Cao & Peihua Xu & Jianping Chen & Lianjing Zheng & Cencen Niu, 2016. "Hazard Assessment of Debris-Flow along the Baicha River in Heshigten Banner, Inner Mongolia, China," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 14(1), pages 1-19, December.

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