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Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China

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Listed:
  • Xinchuang Xu
  • Quansheng Ge
  • Jingyun Zheng
  • Erfu Dai
  • Xuezhen Zhang
  • Shanfeng He
  • Guangxu Liu

Abstract

Drought, a frequent environmental disaster in the monsoon region of east China, significantly affects the agricultural economy. In recent years, researchers have emphasised drought risk management. This paper presents a preliminary method to analyse the risk of agricultural drought with regard to the loss of three main crops in individual prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China. In this study, the agricultural drought risk is assessed by developing the index of consecutive rainless days and establishing loss rate curves based on the historical drought data from 1995 to 2008. The results show that the North China is seriously affected by drought hazard. Northeast China is the most sensitive to drought due to its large sown crop areas and weak irrigation. Approximately 11 % of the cities are in the extreme risk category; this category includes 26 % of the cultivated land area and 11 % of the total crop yields in the region. Twenty-three per cent of the cities, accounting for 28.5 % of the total cultivated land area and 26.4 % of the crop yields of the study area, are in high-risk areas, and 77 % of the cities with high and extreme risk levels are distributed in North and Northeast China. Moreover, 64 % of the cities in the monsoon region of East China are in moderate- and low-risk levels. These cities are primarily located south of the Yangtze River. In conclusion, minimising the risk of agricultural drought must be emphasised in northern China because of the high level of risk. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2013

Suggested Citation

  • Xinchuang Xu & Quansheng Ge & Jingyun Zheng & Erfu Dai & Xuezhen Zhang & Shanfeng He & Guangxu Liu, 2013. "Agricultural drought risk analysis based on three main crops in prefecture-level cities in the monsoon region of east China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 66(2), pages 1257-1272, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:66:y:2013:i:2:p:1257-1272
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-012-0549-y
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Gil, Marina & Garrido, Alberto & Gómez-Ramos, Almudena, 2011. "Economic analysis of drought risk: An application for irrigated agriculture in Spain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 98(5), pages 823-833, March.
    2. Lu Hao & Xiaoyu Zhang & Shoudong Liu, 2012. "Risk assessment to China’s agricultural drought disaster in county unit," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 61(2), pages 785-801, March.
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    Cited by:

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    2. Zhao Zhang & Yi Chen & Pin Wang & Shuai Zhang & Fulu Tao & Xiaofei Liu, 2014. "Spatial and temporal changes of agro-meteorological disasters affecting maize production in China since 1990," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 71(3), pages 2087-2100, April.
    3. Zhang, Zhe & Zhang, Yanqing & Sun, Zhanxiang & Zheng, Jiaming & Liu, Enke & Feng, Liangshan & Feng, Chen & Si, Pengfei & Bai, Wei & Cai, Qian & Yang, Ning & van der Werf, Wopke & Zhang, Lizhen, 2019. "Plastic film cover during the fallow season preceding sowing increases yield and water use efficiency of rain-fed spring maize in a semi-arid climate," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 203-210.
    4. Huili Chen & Zhongyao Liang & Yong Liu & Qingsong Jiang & Shuguang Xie, 2018. "Effects of drought and flood on crop production in China across 1949–2015: spatial heterogeneity analysis with Bayesian hierarchical modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(1), pages 525-541, May.
    5. Zhe Zhang & Na Li & Zhanxiang Sun & Guanghua Yin & Yanqing Zhang & Wei Bai & Liangshan Feng & John Yang, 2022. "Fall Straw Incorporation with Plastic Film Cover Increases Corn Yield and Water Use Efficiency under a Semi-Arid Climate," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(12), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Xu, Hanqing & Tian, Zhan & He, Xiaogang & Wang, Jun & Sun, Laixiang & Fischer, Günther & Fan, Dongli & Zhong, Honglin & Wu, Wei & Pope, Edward & Kent, Chris & Liu, Junguo, 2019. "Future increases in irrigation water requirement challenge the water-food nexus in the northeast farming region of China," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 213(C), pages 594-604.
    7. Taotao Chen & Guimin Xia & Tiegang Liu & Wei Chen & Daocai Chi, 2016. "Assessment of Drought Impact on Main Cereal Crops Using a Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index in Liaoning Province, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 8(10), pages 1-16, October.
    8. Wan, Wei & Liu, Zhong & Li, Kejiang & Wang, Guiman & Wu, Hanqing & Wang, Qingyun, 2021. "Drought monitoring of the maize planting areas in Northeast and North China Plain," Agricultural Water Management, Elsevier, vol. 245(C).

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