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A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment

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  • Anita Grezio
  • Warner Marzocchi
  • Laura Sandri
  • Paolo Gasparini

Abstract

In this paper, a Bayesian procedure is implemented for the Probability Tsunami Hazard Assessment (PTHA). The approach is general and modular incorporating all significant information relevant for the hazard assessment, such as theoretical and empirical background, analytical or numerical models, instrumental and historical data. The procedure provides the posterior probability distribution that integrates the prior probability distribution based on the physical knowledge of the process and the likelihood based on the historical data. Also, the method deals with aleatory and epistemic uncertainties incorporating in a formal way all sources of relevant uncertainty, from the tsunami generation process to the wave propagation and impact on the coasts. The modular structure of the procedure is flexible and easy to modify and/or update as long as new models and/or information are available. Finally, the procedure is applied to an hypothetical region, Neverland, to clarify the PTHA evaluation in a realistic case. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Anita Grezio & Warner Marzocchi & Laura Sandri & Paolo Gasparini, 2010. "A Bayesian procedure for Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 53(1), pages 159-174, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:53:y:2010:i:1:p:159-174
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9418-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hiroaki Sato & Hitoshi Murakami & Yasunori Kozuki & Naoaki Yamamoto, 2003. "Study on a Simplified Method of Tsunami Risk Assessment," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 29(3), pages 325-340, July.
    2. Monte Kietpawpan & Parichart Visuthismajarn & Charlchai Tanavud & Mark Robson, 2008. "Method of calculating tsunami travel times in the Andaman Sea region," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 46(1), pages 89-106, July.
    3. Eric Geist & Tom Parsons, 2006. "Probabilistic Analysis of Tsunami Hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 37(3), pages 277-314, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacopo Selva & Sotiris Argyroudis & Kyriazis Pitilakis, 2013. "Impact on loss/risk assessments of inter-model variability in vulnerability analysis," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 67(2), pages 723-746, June.
    2. Matthew B. Doelp & Jack A. Puleo & Nathaniel G. Plant, 2019. "Predicting surf zone injuries along the Delaware coast using a Bayesian network," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 98(2), pages 379-401, September.
    3. Grezio Anita & Laura Sandri & Warner Marzocchi & Andrea Argnani & Paolo Gasparini & Jacopo Selva, 2012. "Probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 64(1), pages 329-358, October.
    4. Warner Marzocchi & Alexander Garcia-Aristizabal & Paolo Gasparini & Maria Mastellone & Angela Di Ruocco, 2012. "Basic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 62(2), pages 551-573, June.
    5. Carl Harbitz & Finn Løvholt & Hilmar Bungum, 2014. "Submarine landslide tsunamis: how extreme and how likely?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(3), pages 1341-1374, July.
    6. Ye Zheng & Yazhou Xie & Xuejiao Long, 2021. "A comprehensive review of Bayesian statistics in natural hazards engineering," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 108(1), pages 63-91, August.
    7. James Knighton & Luis Bastidas, 2015. "A proposed probabilistic seismic tsunami hazard analysis methodology," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 78(1), pages 699-723, August.
    8. Eric Geist & Tom Parsons, 2014. "Undersampling power-law size distributions: effect on the assessment of extreme natural hazards," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 565-595, June.
    9. Ignacio Barranco & Vicente Gracia & Joan Pau Sierra & Hector Perea & Xavier Gironella, 2017. "Tsunami hazards in the Catalan Coast, a low-intensity seismic activity area," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 88(3), pages 1273-1295, September.

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