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Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: a quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses

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  • Kristin Marano
  • David Wald
  • Trevor Allen

Abstract

This study presents a quantitative and geospatial description of global losses due to earthquake-induced secondary effects, including landslide, liquefaction, tsunami, and fire for events during the past 40 years. These processes are of great importance to the US Geological Survey’s (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system, which is currently being developed to deliver rapid earthquake impact and loss assessments following large/significant global earthquakes. An important question is how dominant are losses due to secondary effects (and under what conditions, and in which regions)? Thus, which of these effects should receive higher priority research efforts in order to enhance PAGER’s overall assessment of earthquakes losses and alerting for the likelihood of secondary impacts? We find that while 21.5% of fatal earthquakes have deaths due to secondary (non-shaking) causes, only rarely are secondary effects the main cause of fatalities. The recent 2004 Great Sumatra–Andaman Islands earthquake is a notable exception, with extraordinary losses due to tsunami. The potential for secondary hazards varies greatly, and systematically, due to regional geologic and geomorphic conditions. Based on our findings, we have built country-specific disclaimers for PAGER that address potential for each hazard (Earle et al., Proceedings of the 14th World Conference of the Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China, 2008 ). We will now focus on ways to model casualties from secondary effects based on their relative importance as well as their general predictability. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media B.V. 2009 2010

Suggested Citation

  • Kristin Marano & David Wald & Trevor Allen, 2010. "Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: a quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(2), pages 319-328, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:52:y:2010:i:2:p:319-328
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-009-9372-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paula Dunbar, 2007. "Increasing public awareness of natural hazards via the Internet," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(3), pages 529-536, September.
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    2. Arnaud Mignan & Ziqi Wang, 2020. "Exploring the Space of Possibilities in Cascading Disasters with Catastrophe Dynamics," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(19), pages 1-21, October.
    3. Junmei Kang & Zhihua Wang & Hongbin Cheng & Jun Wang & Xiaoliang Liu, 2022. "Remote Sensing Land Use Evolution in Earthquake-Stricken Regions of Wenchuan County, China," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(15), pages 1-23, August.
    4. Yuli Zhang & Amber R. Richter & Jeyaveerasingam George Shanthikumar & Zuo‐Jun Max Shen, 2022. "Dynamic Inventory Relocation in Disaster Relief," Production and Operations Management, Production and Operations Management Society, vol. 31(3), pages 1052-1070, March.
    5. Chuang Song & Chen Yu & Zhenhong Li & Stefano Utili & Paolo Frattini & Giovanni Crosta & Jianbing Peng, 2022. "Triggering and recovery of earthquake accelerated landslides in Central Italy revealed by satellite radar observations," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 13(1), pages 1-12, December.
    6. Zheng He & Negar Elhami Khorasani, 2022. "Identification and hierarchical structure of cause factors for fire following earthquake using data mining and interpretive structural modeling," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 947-976, May.
    7. Vedat Bayram & Hande Yaman, 2018. "Shelter Location and Evacuation Route Assignment Under Uncertainty: A Benders Decomposition Approach," Transportation Science, INFORMS, vol. 52(2), pages 416-436, March.
    8. M. Budimir & P. Atkinson & H. Lewis, 2014. "Earthquake-and-landslide events are associated with more fatalities than earthquakes alone," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 72(2), pages 895-914, June.
    9. Carlo Cauzzi & Donat Fäh & David J. Wald & John Clinton & Stéphane Losey & Stefan Wiemer, 2018. "ShakeMap-based prediction of earthquake-induced mass movements in Switzerland calibrated on historical observations," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 92(2), pages 1211-1235, June.

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