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Co-seismic and rainfall-triggered landslide hazard susceptibility assessment for Uganda derived using fuzzy logic and geospatial modelling techniques

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Listed:
  • Morris Oleng

    (The University of Sheffield
    Kyambogo University
    Uganda Christian University)

  • Zuhal Ozdemir

    (The University of Sheffield)

  • Kypros Pilakoutas

    (The University of Sheffield)

Abstract

Uganda has suffered from many damaging landslides like the 1966 Rwenzori, 1994 Kisomoro and 2010 Bududa events. Despite escalating landslide risks exacerbated by rapid deforestation, urbanization and population growth coupled with a substandard building stock, comprehensive national co-seismic and rainfall-induced landslide hazard and risk maps for Uganda do not exist. This study therefore aims to conduct landslide hazard assessment and zonation for Uganda using a geospatial-based fuzzy logic methodology. In this methodology, landslide frequency ratios obtained for the 1966 Toro and 1994 Kisomoro earthquakes are assigned to the stochastic event-based probabilistic seismic hazard map derived using OpenQuake-engine. The available co-seismic and rainfall-induced landslide inventory datasets are used to derive the distribution of landslide frequency ratios based on geology, topographic slope position index, slope aspect, slope angle, distance from streams, and proximity to major active faults. The spatial distribution of fuzzy membership functions obtained from frequency ratios are overlaid and aggregated to produce landslide susceptibility maps showing relative probabilities of landslide occurrences across Uganda. Results indicate that the highest overall landslide hazard susceptibility is expected in areas comprising highly weathered outcropping rocks of precambrian granites, dominantly metasedimentary, and granulites and gneisses geologies within 40 km from major active faults; where the bedrock peak ground acceleration ≥ 0.1 g, topographic position index ≥ 3.8, slope gradient ≥ 10°, and the distance from streams ≤ 1.25 km. These findings can inform Uganda’s directorate of disaster preparedness and management towards pioneering the development of co-seismic landslide risk mitigation measures for the country.

Suggested Citation

  • Morris Oleng & Zuhal Ozdemir & Kypros Pilakoutas, 2024. "Co-seismic and rainfall-triggered landslide hazard susceptibility assessment for Uganda derived using fuzzy logic and geospatial modelling techniques," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 120(15), pages 14049-14082, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:120:y:2024:i:15:d:10.1007_s11069-024-06744-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-024-06744-5
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. F. Mugagga & V. Kakembo & M. Buyinza, 2012. "A characterisation of the physical properties of soil and the implications for landslide occurrence on the slopes of Mount Elgon, Eastern Uganda," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 60(3), pages 1113-1131, February.
    2. Denis Nseka & Vincent Kakembo & Yazidhi Bamutaze & Frank Mugagga, 2019. "Analysis of topographic parameters underpinning landslide occurrence in Kigezi highlands of southwestern Uganda," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 99(2), pages 973-989, November.
    3. Kristin Marano & David Wald & Trevor Allen, 2010. "Global earthquake casualties due to secondary effects: a quantitative analysis for improving rapid loss analyses," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 52(2), pages 319-328, February.
    4. Kunal Gupta & Neelima Satyam & Vaasu Gupta, 2023. "Probabilistic assessment of seismically triggered landslide hazard for Uttarakhand (India) in the Western Himalayas," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(1), pages 669-689, August.
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