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On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall

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  • Karumuri Ashok
  • N. Saji

Abstract

The relative impacts of the ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole (IOD) events on Indian summer (June–September) monsoon rainfall at sub-regional scales have been examined in this study. GISST datasets from 1958 to 1998, along with Willmott and Matsuura gridded rainfall data, all India summer monsoon rainfall data, and homogeneous and sub-regional Indian rainfall datasets were used. The spatial distribution of partial correlations between the IOD and summer rainfall over India indicates a significant impact on rainfall along the monsoon trough regions, parts of the southwest coastal regions of India, and also over Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Iran. ENSO events have a wider impact, although opposite in nature over the monsoon trough region to that of IOD events. The ENSO (IOD) index is negatively (positively) correlated (significant at the 95% confidence level from a two-tailed Student t-test) with summer monsoon rainfall over seven (four) of the eight homogeneous rainfall zones of India. During summer, ENSO events also cause drought over northern Sri Lanka, whereas the IOD events cause surplus rainfall in its south. On monthly scales, the ENSO and IOD events have significant impacts on many parts of India. In general, the magnitude of ENSO-related correlations is greater than those related to the IOD. The monthly-stratified IOD variability during each of the months from July to September has a significant impact on Indian summer monsoon rainfall variability over different parts of India, confirming that strong IOD events indeed affect the Indian summer monsoon. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media, Inc. 2007

Suggested Citation

  • Karumuri Ashok & N. Saji, 2007. "On the impacts of ENSO and Indian Ocean dipole events on sub-regional Indian summer monsoon rainfall," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 42(2), pages 273-285, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:42:y:2007:i:2:p:273-285
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-006-9091-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. N. H. Saji & B. N. Goswami & P. N. Vinayachandran & T. Yamagata, 1999. "A dipole mode in the tropical Indian Ocean," Nature, Nature, vol. 401(6751), pages 360-363, September.
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    Cited by:

    1. Krishneel K. Sharma & Danielle C. Verdon-Kidd & Andrew D. Magee, 2023. "The influence of large-scale climate modes on tropical cyclone tracks in the southwest Pacific," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 118(3), pages 2285-2307, September.
    2. Kavya Johny & Maya L. Pai & S. Adarsh, 2022. "Investigating the multiscale teleconnections of Madden–Julian oscillation and monthly rainfall using time-dependent intrinsic cross-correlation," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(2), pages 1795-1822, June.

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