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The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion

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  • Howard Roscoe

Abstract

Ozone depletion at mid-latitudes is caused by reactivehalogens from man-made halocarbons. The stratosphericsulphate aerosol which follows large volcaniceruptions enhances (multiplies) this ozone depletion(it has no effect on ozone without halocarbons). Mid-latitude depletion almost doubled for the twoyears after Mt. Pinatubo. Although the MontrealProtocol is expected to reduce atmospheric amounts ofhalocarbons in the 21st century, stratospheric ozonewill be at risk of depletion enhancement by largeeruptions for the next 50 years. Mechanisms ofvolcanoes suggest that large eruptions are random andthat their global rate is constant for severalcenturies. Measurements of large eruptions during thelast 1000 years in ice cores have a remarkable fit toa Poisson distribution, reinforcing the conclusionthat the global incidence is random and at a constantrate for this period. From this rate, the probabilityof one or more eruptions with at least the ozone-lossenhancement of Pinatubo is 58 % in 50 years. Thisprobability is large enough to be of serious concernfor future mid-latitude ozone loss. Copyright Kluwer Academic Publishers 2001

Suggested Citation

  • Howard Roscoe, 2001. "The Risk of Large Volcanic Eruptions and the Impact of this Risk on Future Ozone Depletion," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 23(2), pages 231-246, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:23:y:2001:i:2:p:231-246
    DOI: 10.1023/A:1011178016473
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Paolo Papale, 1999. "Strain-induced magma fragmentation in explosive eruptions," Nature, Nature, vol. 397(6718), pages 425-428, February.
    2. W. J. McGuire & R. J. Howarth & C. R. Firth & A. R. Solow & A. D. Pullen & S. J. Saunders & I. S. Stewart & C. Vita-Finzi, 1997. "Correlation between rate of sea-level change and frequency of explosive volcanism in the Mediterranean," Nature, Nature, vol. 389(6650), pages 473-476, October.
    3. Alan T. Linde & I. Selwyn Sacks, 1998. "Triggering of volcanic eruptions," Nature, Nature, vol. 395(6705), pages 888-890, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan M. Ćirković & Anders Sandberg & Nick Bostrom, 2010. "Anthropic Shadow: Observation Selection Effects and Human Extinction Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 30(10), pages 1495-1506, October.

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