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Meteorological and hydrological drought risks under changing environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China

Author

Listed:
  • Dan Li

    (Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Bingjun Liu

    (Sun Yat-sen University
    Sun Yat-sen University)

  • Changqing Ye

    (Hainan University)

Abstract

Drought is one of the most frequent and devastating natural disasters. Based on future climate scenarios and land use/land cover (LULC) patterns, the copula framework was employed to calculate the probabilities of meteorological and hydrological drought risks for the next 30 years (2021–2050) in the Wanquan River Basin, meanwhile, the relationship between hydrological and meteorological droughts was revealed by correlation analysis and cross-wavelet transform (XWT). The results are as follows: (1) In the next 30 years, the risk of intra-seasonal meteorological drought (short-term drought) in the WRB is high at a probability of 40–70%, while the risk of inter-seasonal meteorological drought is relatively small at a probability of close to 30%; (2) compared with meteorological drought, the risk of intra-seasonal hydrological drought is small, but the probability of inter-seasonal hydrological drought (medium- or long-term drought) is 30–50%, and the risk of hydrological drought in the upstream is greater than that in the downstream; (3) the future meteorological and hydrological droughts in the WRB are significantly and positively correlated, and that hydrological drought lags behind meteorological drought.

Suggested Citation

  • Dan Li & Bingjun Liu & Changqing Ye, 2022. "Meteorological and hydrological drought risks under changing environment on the Wanquan River Basin, Southern China," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 114(3), pages 2941-2967, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:114:y:2022:i:3:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05500-x
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05500-x
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    References listed on IDEAS

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