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New threshold for landslide warning in the southern part of Thailand integrates cumulative rainfall with event rainfall depth-duration

Author

Listed:
  • Rattana Salee

    (Suranaree University of Technology)

  • Avirut Chinkulkijniwat

    (Suranaree University of Technology)

  • Somjai Yubonchit

    (Rajamangala University of Technology Isan)

  • Suksun Horpibulsuk

    (Suranaree University of Technology)

  • Chadanit Wangfaoklang

    (Syntec Construction Public Co., Ltd)

  • Sirirat Soisompong

    (Christiani&Nielsen (Thai) Public Co., Ltd.)

Abstract

A landslide-triggering rainfall threshold for the southern part of Thailand was introduced. The new threshold explicitly integrates the variables of event rainfall and cumulative rainfall from precipitation data corresponding to 92 landslide events in the study area. To determine event rainfall, a suitable inter-event criterion (IEC) had to be defined that separated two consecutive rainfalls. A rainfall intensity no greater than 2 mm/day lasting at least 1 day (IEC2,1) was the criterion established to separate two consecutive rainfalls in the study area. Using quantile regression, an event rainfall depth-duration (ED) threshold was drawn at a probability level of 5%. A 20-day cumulative event rainfall depth (CR20) was the most suitable duration of cumulative rainfall depth. A CR20 of 100 mm was the third rainfall variable to give a threshold that integrated cumulative rainfall with event rainfall depth-duration (CED). This threshold is proposed for the study area depicted in three-dimensional space. The CED threshold is implemented by an assessment of CR20 followed by an assessment of ED. The hit rate (HR) of the CED threshold is a little lower than the HR of the ED threshold, but the CED threshold is far better than the ED threshold in terms of false alarm rate (FAR) since the CR20 of 100 mm filters out many non-triggering rainfalls prior to the assessment of the event rainfall.

Suggested Citation

  • Rattana Salee & Avirut Chinkulkijniwat & Somjai Yubonchit & Suksun Horpibulsuk & Chadanit Wangfaoklang & Sirirat Soisompong, 2022. "New threshold for landslide warning in the southern part of Thailand integrates cumulative rainfall with event rainfall depth-duration," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 125-141, August.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:113:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-022-05292-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-022-05292-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Koenker, Roger W & Bassett, Gilbert, Jr, 1978. "Regression Quantiles," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 33-50, January.
    2. Stefano Luigi Gariano & Massimo Melillo & Silvia Peruccacci & Maria Teresa Brunetti, 2020. "How much does the rainfall temporal resolution affect rainfall thresholds for landslide triggering?," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 100(2), pages 655-670, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Weidong Zhao & Yunyun Cheng & Jie Hou & Yihua Chen & Bin Ji & Lei Ma, 2023. "A regional early warning model of geological hazards based on big data of real-time rainfall," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 116(3), pages 3465-3480, April.
    2. Tingchen Wu & Xiao Xie & Haoyu Wu & Haowei Zeng & Xiaoya Zhu, 2022. "A Quantitative Analysis Method of Regional Rainfall-Induced Landslide Deformation Response Variation Based on a Time-Domain Correlation Model," Land, MDPI, vol. 11(5), pages 1-19, May.

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