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A quantitative method for the similarity assessment of typhoon tracks

Author

Listed:
  • Yangchen Di

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Mingyue Lu

    (Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology)

  • Min Chen

    (Nanjing Normal University
    State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province)
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Zhangjian Chen

    (Zhejiang Academy of Surveying and Mapping)

  • Zaiyang Ma

    (Nanjing Normal University
    State Key Laboratory Cultivation Base of Geographical Environment Evolution (Jiangsu Province)
    Jiangsu Center for Collaborative Innovation in Geographical Information Resource Development and Application)

  • Manzhu Yu

    (The Pennsylvania State University)

Abstract

Typhoons are one of the most dangerous types of natural hazards; they are always developed in the western and southwestern Pacific Ocean and pose economic and human security threats to the Pacific Rim annually. Therefore, many scholars in related fields devote themselves to finding an effective way to analyze and forecast typhoon tracks to prevent disasters. Similarity analysis of typhoon tracks can provide great help for typhoon prediction. In this paper, a model for typhoon similarity analysis is proposed to effectively measure and quantify the similarity between two historical typhoon tracks based on the dynamic time warping algorithm, in which five typhoon elements—namely, longitude, latitude, central pressure, expanded Beaufort scale, and movement speed—are integrated to derive a final similarity percentage indicating the similarity level. At the end of this paper, case studies concerning historical typhoons and the ongoing Typhoon 202,106 In-Fa are also conducted to verify the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model. The results show that the proposed model can effectively provide a quantitative similarity of two typhoon tracks when functioning well on ongoing typhoons with a cutoff rule and supplying promising support for typhoon prediction simultaneously.

Suggested Citation

  • Yangchen Di & Mingyue Lu & Min Chen & Zhangjian Chen & Zaiyang Ma & Manzhu Yu, 2022. "A quantitative method for the similarity assessment of typhoon tracks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 112(1), pages 587-602, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:nathaz:v:112:y:2022:i:1:d:10.1007_s11069-021-05195-6
    DOI: 10.1007/s11069-021-05195-6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giorgino, Toni, 2009. "Computing and Visualizing Dynamic Time Warping Alignments in R: The dtw Package," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 31(i07).
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